950
FXHW40 KWBC 161331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2025
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ABOUT OR GREATER THAN +0.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS (C) WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FROM JANUARY THROUGH DECEMBER 2024, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 28.10 INCHES (78 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 10.84 INCHES (66 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 11.70 INCHES (72 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 99.86 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) FAVOR POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2025. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND HAWAII OR THE
BIG ISLAND) FOR FEBRUARY WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES INDICATED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF MAUI (KAHULUI) AND HAWAII (HILO), BASED ON MODEL
FORECASTS.
FOR THE FEBRUARY 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND C3S
PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
IMPACT OF A LA NIñA WOULD ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN FEBRUARY
(SEE FURTHER DISCUSSION OF LA NIñA BELOW), ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST OF LA NIñA
IS UNCERTAIN. WEAK PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INDICATED IN THE FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL
MODEL FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL LA NIñA FORCING.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 71.4 0.5 A40 5.0 8.4 11.1
KAHULUI A40 71.9 0.6 A40 0.9 1.1 1.8
HONOLULU A45 73.3 0.5 A40 0.7 1.0 1.4
LIHUE A50 71.7 0.6 A45 1.3 1.8 4.0
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2025 - FMA 2026
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOK. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
EQUATORIAL SSTS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BELOW
AVERAGE SSTS WERE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH
NEAR-AVERAGE SSTS OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE EXPANDED TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
OCEAN, WHILE ABOVE-AVERAGE
SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL IN THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC AND AT DEPTH NEAR
THE DATE LINE. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY FROM THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE DATE LINE, WHILE ENHANCED CONVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION WAS EVIDENT OVER PARTS OF INDONESIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND THE
PHILIPPINES. MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS PREDICT LA NINA
CONDITIONS WITH A 59% PROBABILITY TO PERSIST THROUGH FEBRUARY-APRIL 2025, WITH
A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL (GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY) LIKELY DURING
MARCH-MAY 2025.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FOR LIHUE, HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO FOR FMA
(FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL) THROUGH JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2025, SUPPORTED BY NEARLY
ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS DECADAL
TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF A WEAK LA NIñA
THROUGH WINTER. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GREATER FOR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII, EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT IN EARLY SEASONS,
FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM THE NMME. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATE OF
ENSO AND WEAKENING SIGNALS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AT LONGER LEADS, EQUAL CHANCES
(EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII
BEGINNING IN JAS (JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER
LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM FMA TO MJJ
(MAY-JUN-JUL) 2025, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AS WELL AS
CANONICAL IMPACTS OF LA NIñA. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF POSITIVE SST
ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALSO SUPPORT FORECASTS OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CONSOLIDATION OF STATISTICAL MODELS, INCLUDING
CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) AND A COMBINED
ENSO AND DECADAL TREND FORECAST USING OPTIMUM CLIMATE NORMALS (ENSO-OCN),
SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THREE OVERLAPPING
SEASONS. DUE TO WEAKER SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL
AND STATISTICAL MODELS AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN ENSO FORCING, EC IS
INDICATED FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
ALL OF HAWAII BEGINNING IN JJA 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2025 A50 71.7 0.4 A50 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 A50 72.0 0.5 A50 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 A50 72.9 0.5 A45 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2025 A45 74.0 0.4 A40 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2025 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2025 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2025 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2026 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2026 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2026 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2025 A60 72.3 0.4 A55 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 A55 73.0 0.4 A55 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 A55 74.3 0.5 A45 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2025 A45 76.0 0.5 A45 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2025 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2026 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2026 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2025 A60 73.8 0.4 A55 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 A60 74.8 0.4 A55 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 A55 76.3 0.4 A45 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2025 A45 78.2 0.4 A45 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2025 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2025 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2025 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2025 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2026 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2026 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2025 A60 72.1 0.5 A60 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 A60 72.8 0.5 A55 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 A60 74.2 0.5 A50 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2025 A50 76.0 0.5 A45 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 A50 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2025 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2025 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2025 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2026 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2026 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2026 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU FEB 20, 2025.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page