545
FXUS01 KWBC 161944
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
VALID 00Z FRI JAN 17 2025 - 00Z SUN JAN 19 2025
...IMPROVEMENT IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...
...ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING HAZARDOUS COLD TO MUCH OF THE NATION AND
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST...
BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY TODAY, AND
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AS OFFSHORE WINDS DIMINISH. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION OF NOTE IS IN
THE GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC
WHERE SNOW IS FALLING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW, FALLING
HEAVY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AND NORTHWEST. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SURGE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HAZARDOUSLY COLD FOR MANY WITH ANOMALIES OF
15-35 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE MOST EXTREME ANOMALIES WILL BE IN
THE PLAINS, BUT THE COLDEST AND MOST DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THE ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD SEE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF -30 DEGREES OR
COLDER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WHICH POSES A GREAT RISK OF
HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE TO EXPOSED SKIN. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITIONAL TO HAZARDOUS COLD, THE ARCTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IN SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WPC HAS INITATED KEY MESSAGES FOR THE DANGEROUS
COLD AND SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS AND IN AREAS WITH TRAINING CONVECTION, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE WEST COAST WILL LARGELY BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS ARCTIC SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DOLAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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