119
FXUS06 KWBC 162002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 16 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2025
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND
STRONG TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE 0Z ECENS AND CMCE RELOADING THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS BY DAY-10. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND
INDICATES ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH ALASKA, WITH A +180 METER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH A TRANSITION TOWARD NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS
IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE. TROUGHING FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS HAWAII FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE.
A MAJOR ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE 0Z ECENS AND GEFS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EXCEEDING -15 DEG F ON DAY-6 (JAN 22).
ACTUAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM SUBZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST TO IN THE 20S DEG F ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
THE COLD IS FORECAST TO MODERATE AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, WITH A FLIP TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW-NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EAST. THE REFORECAST AND UNCALIBRATED
TOOLS ALL SUPPORT ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE EAST. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A QUICKER WARMING
TREND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS SLIGHTLY FAVOR NEAR-
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS. RIDGING FAVORS HIGH
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALASKA. THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST
TOOL SUPPORTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
HAWAII, BUT WITH REDUCED PROBABILITIES TO THE NORTH DUE TO TROUGHING FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH FAVORS MULTIPLE SHORTTWAVES IN THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD.
A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY EARLY, BUT AS THE TROUGHING RELAXES,
MORE NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ALLOW SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST AND THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST
TIED TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST
SUPPORTS ELEVATED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE ROCKIES TO
THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERTOP THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ELEVATED
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND DUE TO THE PROJECTED NORTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE STORM TRACK AND REDUCED PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK ONGOING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, OFFSET BY A POTENTIAL
MID-LEVEL PATTERN REALIGNMENT BEGINNING LATER IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2025
A REALIGNMENT OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING WEEK-2, WITH THE
0Z ECENS, GEFS, AND CMCE BUILDING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST, AND
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADING BUT CENTERED MORE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
ALONG WITH A RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS WOULD ALSO
BE CONSISTENT WITH THE BACKGROUND LA NINA STATE AND ACTIVE MJO OVER THE INDIAN
OCEAN. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST WHERE WEAKLY
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE
DEPICTED OVER ALASKA UNDERNEATH RIDGING. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORED FOR
HAWAII DUE TO A VARIABLE HEIGHT PATTERN.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS DURING WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH REGIONAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN REALIGNS. AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD, THE LARGEST NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S., WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS MODERATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
EASTWARD, AND THE 0Z ECENS AND GEFS DEPICT RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THE RELOADING TROUGH FURTHER WEST FAVORS
A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN
THE ECENS. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIED TO RIDGING AND
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXTENDING THROUGH ALASKA. THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL SUPPORTS
ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS HAWAII.
THE RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS INCREASING NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS INCREASING
ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST
TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS. AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE
REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK IN THE EAST, WITH THE DEGREE
OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION INFLUENCING THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTH AND TRACK, ALONG WITH ANY IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUPPORTS BROAD COVERAGE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA,
BUT A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT OF THIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AND
INCREASING SURFACE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE
TEMPERATURES.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19661228 - 19691230 - 20080115 - 20020112 - 19800122
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19661228 - 20080116 - 20020113 - 19691230 - 20070123
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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