175
FOUS30 KWBC 181949
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
DAY 1
VALID 16Z SAT JAN 18 2025 - 12Z SUN JAN 19 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND SOME SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...
..16Z UPDATE
12Z HREF SUITE HAS A NOTABLE TREND UPWARD FOR LOCALIZED 3" AND 5"
EXCEEDANCE POTENTIAL, PER 40-KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF
35-45% AND 5-10%, RESPECTIVELY. THIS INCREASE (PARTICULARLY FOR THE
5" EXCEEDANCE POTENTIAL) IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE 12Z ARW, WHICH
SUGGESTS A LONGER PERIOD OF TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS OF NORTH
FL WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1-2"/HR AT TIMES. MOST CAMS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE LOCALIZED TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 2-3" WITH RAINFALL
RATES GENERALLY CAPPED CLOSER TO 1"/HR. GIVEN 3-HR FFGS BEING
GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4" ACROSS THE REGION, A MARGINAL RISK AREA
REMAINS SUFFICIENT (THOUGH SOME MINOR EXPANSION OF THE AREA WAS
NECESSARY BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE).
CHURCHILL
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW, IN THE PRESENCE OF PWS ON
THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD HAPPEN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES INTO THE 250-750 J/KG RANGE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF. THIS COULD RESULT IN
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT CELLS. SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES SWATHS OF 2-3
INCH QPF DURING THIS PERIOD, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
INSTANCES OF FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BEYOND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HAMRICK
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 19 2025 - 12Z MON JAN 20 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CHENARD
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON JAN 20 2025 - 12Z TUE JAN 21 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CHENARD
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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