810
FXUS01 KWBC 182001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 19 2025 - 00Z TUE JAN 21 2025
...WINTER STORM TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO ADJACENT
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REDEVELOP ON MONDAY...
...MORE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION WILL BRING VERY COLD TO DANGEROUSLY
COLD CONDITIONS INTO MUCH OF THE NATION...
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENGULF
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND U.S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST, MOISTURE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, AND THEN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES ON SUNDAY. AN EXPANDING SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN
BE EXPECTED WELL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TRACK WHILE RAIN/SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INCLUDING FLORIDA. IN TERMS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM INTERIOR
MID-ATLANTIC INTO MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS, THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY, AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE 3 TO UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAR WEST AS WEST VIRGINIA, AND
AS FAR NORTH AS DOWNEAST MAINE BY THE TIME THE INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. BLUSTERY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BIG
STORM WILL USHER THE EXPANSIVE POOL OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE ENTIRE EAST COAST ON MONDAY, TRIGGERING A NEW
ROUND OF HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR THE SNOW BELT DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY DOWNWIND FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME QUITE
STRONG AS THEY TRAVERSE NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM FROM
UPSLOPE FLOW FORCED BY THE PLUNGING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ON
SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TRIGGERS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS FIRST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
BESIDES THE WINTRY WEATHER, DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE THE OTHER BIG WEATHER STORY. SUB-ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ENGULF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. BY MONDAY
MORNING. FORECAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL PENETRATE DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY SOUTHERN TEXAS AND A GOOD PORTION OF FLORIDA
STAYING ABOVE FREEZING. PLUNGING WIND CHILLS WILL BE USHERED INTO
THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY BEHIND THE CYCLONE. MEANWHILE,
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 30-55 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL POSE A
LIFE-THREATENING RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE TO EXPOSED
SKIN. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA
AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE
WEST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE INTERIOR
WEST/PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE 50S AND 60S IN CALIFORNIA, AND THE 60S
AND 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
KONG
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page