649
FOUS30 KWBC 190000
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
DAY 1
VALID 01Z SUN JAN 19 2025 - 12Z SUN JAN 19 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND SOME SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...
..01Z UPDATE
A SMALL TRIMMING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE INHERITED MARGINAL
RISK WAS DONE WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED IN THIS AREA UNTIL THE HEAVIEST
RAIN PUSHES THROUGH VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED. THE AREAS SEEING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NOW MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINS
AS A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
WHICH IS WHAT THE MARGINAL RISK IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR. OTHERWISE
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY REMAINED THE SAME. THIS AREA
REMAINS A LOWER-END MARGINAL RISK WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR
2 OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN ANY LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE
AREAS.
WEGMAN
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW, IN THE PRESENCE OF PWS ON
THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES, WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN GEORGIA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD HAPPEN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY WHEN MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES INTO THE 250-750 J/KG RANGE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF. THIS COULD RESULT IN
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT CELLS. SOME OF THE CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES SWATHS OF 2-3
INCH QPF DURING THIS PERIOD, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR
INSTANCES OF FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE AXIS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
BEYOND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
HAMRICK
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 19 2025 - 12Z MON JAN 20 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CHENARD
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON JAN 20 2025 - 12Z TUE JAN 21 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
CHENARD
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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