694
FXUS01 KWBC 192017
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
VALID 00Z MON JAN 20 2025 - 00Z WED JAN 22 2025
...WINTER STORM TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW TO THE
INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A REINFORCING SURGE OF FRIGID AIR WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE NATION...
...IMPACTS FROM A RARE, SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE SOUTH
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT SPREADING
EAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY...
...A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER RETURNS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND BEGINNING TO EXIT
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE LATEST ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER FROM THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. UP
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MILDER AIR FROM THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION IN FORM OF RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE COLDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHANGES THE RAIN
TO A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS EVENING. AS THE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE
TRACKS JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT, A SWATH OF SNOW IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO COASTAL MAINE
WHERE 3-6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR THE CAPE COD AREA
AND EAST END OF LONG ISLAND BEFORE CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AS
THE DEEPENING STORM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY LATER TONIGHT. PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER, BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE STORM WILL USHER
IN THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR THIS SEASON, BRINGING TUMBLING WIND
CHILLS AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST, FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY MONDAY
MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT. IN ADDITION, THIS EXPANSIVE
FRIGID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THE LATEST ROUND OF HEAVY
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SNOW BELT OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FIRMLY IN PLACE. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MORNINGS WITH READING APPROACHING -30 DEGREES NEAR INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. COLD WEATHER WATCHES/WARNINGS AND FREEZING WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST INCLUDING SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DIPS INTO THE
REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN PRODUCING A VERY RARE WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT, AND
EVEN DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK
EASTWARD AND DUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE COLD AIR FOR THE GULF
COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY RARE AND SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES UPWARDS OF 5
INCHES JUST INLAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR
THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION, A PERIOD OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. GIVEN THE RARITY OF THIS WINTER STORM,
MAJOR TRAFFIC AND TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
SOME OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REACH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERIOR WEST AS WELL, WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY ONLY RECOVERING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY MILDER AND AROUND AVERAGE ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH 40S
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE 50S AND 60S FOR CALIFORNIA, AND THE
60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THESE
MILD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY HAVE
PROMPTED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO ISSUE A CRITICAL TO
EXTREME RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
KONG
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