755
FXUS06 KWBC 202001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 20 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2025
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. MID-LEVEL TROUGHS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). HOWEVER, A
CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION. IN
THE SOUTHEAST, POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE CHANCES EXCEED 70% FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FURTHER EAST, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LESS
CERTAIN AND A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. ALONG THE GULF COAST, THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS FOR WEAK MID-LEVEL POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO DEVELOP. IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOW SNOW PACK AND
ZONAL FLOW INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION. IN
ALASKA, DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND
WHICH INCREASES CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. FOR HAWAII,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO.
DUE TO THE CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST, PROGRESSING EAST WITH TIME
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION STRETCH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THESE REGIONS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR AREAS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM JET DISPLACED NORTH AND NO SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. LIKEWISE,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2025
THE WEEK-2 MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA AND NEARLY ALL OF CANADA. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST IN MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW IN
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FAVORED TO PROGRESS EAST AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST, A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST,
DISPLACING THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
WITH NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH FOR THE WEST, EXCLUDING
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIESFOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST IN THE PRIOR PERIOD. EAST OF THE ROCKIES, GENERALLY
A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THESE WARMER
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. SOME LINGERING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE ECENS MAINTAINS WEAK TROUGHING
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING
WEEK-2 CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE. IN HAWAII,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE MOISTURE MAY SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME TO THE ATLANTIC AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST, THEREFORE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED FOR THESE REGIONS. A SWATH OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE AREAS ARE
FAVORED TO BE DISPLACED FROM THE STORM TRACK THAT IS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO WASHINGTON AND MONTANA WHERE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19671231 - 20080120 - 19940201 - 19910122 - 19850130
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19671230 - 19940131 - 20080119 - 19620111 - 19850130
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING N B
UTAH N B ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page