740
FXUS01 KWBC 231921
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
VALID 00Z FRI JAN 24 2025 - 00Z SUN JAN 26 2025
...VERY COLD WINTER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
EAST COAST WITH A SLOW WARM UP ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND....
...PERIODS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...
..MULTIPLE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WELL BELOW AVERAGE, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE ROCKIES EAST TO THE EAST COAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SOME OF THE MOST NOTABLE DEPARTURES FROM
AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST,
THE 20S AND 30S FROM THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST, AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FRIGID ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.TEMPERATURES
MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY
STANDARDS AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY BREAK DAILY RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA TO SOUTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH WINDS
HAVE COME DOWN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE
QUITE FRIGID AND MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL AROUND 10 DEGREES COLDER.
SOME OF THE MORE ADVERSE IMPACTS FROM THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE SNOW AND ICE
LINGER ON ROADS AND KEEP TRAVEL HAZARDOUS AFTER THE HISTORIC
WINTER STORM. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CAROLINAS.
CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE SOME LATER THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST WHERE WARM
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP BY 10-20 DEGREES AND TO
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND
EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS TODAY WILL BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS FOR FAVORABLE DOWNWIND
LOCATIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST
BANDS COULD NEAR 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DOWNWIND AREAS
OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR WATERTOWN ARE UNDER A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING, AND EASTERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACTIVE.
VERY GUSTY OFFSHORE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH FOR SOME OF
THE AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE PROMPTED THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER TO CONTINUE A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) TODAY AND AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY
AS OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO FRIDAY, REDUCING THE FIRE RISK, THOUGH AN ELEVATED
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST GIVEN DRY HUMIDITY AND CONDITIONS.
IRONICALLY, THE FIRES AND RELATIVELY DRY WINTER FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN, APPROACHING HALF AN INCH PER
HOUR, MAY HAVE A NON-ZERO RISK OF DEBRIS FLOWS OVER BURN SCARS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK
IN A VERY SUSCEPTIBLE REGION RECOVERING AND STILL DEALING WITH
WILDFIRES.
ASIDE FROM THE MAIN STORY-LINES, ANOTHER NOTABLE TALKING POINT
WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WEST. THE WEST HAS
BEEN MOSTLY UNDER A RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO, BUT
TROUGHING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION AND PUSH A RELATIVELY STRONG
COLD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. BY SATURDAY, AREAS COULD BE 15-20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW.
PUTNAM/WILDER
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