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FXUS06 KWBC 232003
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 23 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2025
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG RIDGING NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, AND A POSITIVELY TILTED
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A CUTOFF LOW IS
DEPICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST
CANADA / PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS AND
WEAKEN. IN ITS WAKE, THE STRONG TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD. THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST IS GENERALLY PREDICTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ALLOWING HEIGHTS
TO RISE IN ITS WAKE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALASKA, AS A TROUGH BUILDS AND
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED
70 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW PREDICTED NEARBY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AS
TRANSIENT RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD PUSHES INLAND, WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AS ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PROGRESSES THROUGH
THE REGION. CONVERSELY, AS THIS TROUGH DEPARTS, HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE
SUPPORT INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT WATERS.
MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THERE. BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THE PERIOD IS FAVORED TO
DISPLACE MOISTURE FLOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA PROGRESSES EASTWARD,
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
WEST COAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MIDWEST, AS THE PREDICTED
TRANSIENT RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS FROM NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST, EXCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO
POTENTIAL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF PREDICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN
TROUGH FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ACROSS VARIABLES, OFFSET BY DIVERGING
MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2025
AFTER OBSERVING A NEGATIVE NAO AND AO FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY,
MODELS ARE GENERALLY PREDICTING A POSITIVE PHASE OF BOTH INDICES DURING THE
WEEK-TWO PERIOD. THIS POTENTIAL TRANSITION IS ILLUSTRATED BY PREDICTED BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA AND ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-LATITUDES. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRANSITION
OF THE NAO TO THE POSITIVE PHASE IS GROWING, LIKELY RESULTING IN INCREASED
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TRANSITION TO A POSITIVE AO AND NAO
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A MODERATION OF THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN AND LESS ARCTIC
AIR INTRUSIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING
CONTINUING TO BE FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN
HEMISPHERE, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS THAN TYPICAL WITH A POSITIVE AO AND NAO. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD, RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
WITH TIME. IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD, RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. FARTHER TO THE EAST, INCREASED RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST DEPARTS OFF THE COAST.
A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
STATE. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK AS THE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO
A PREDICTED TRANSIENT PATTERN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED TRANSIENT RIDGING. WITH A TRANSITION TO A
POSITIVE NAO INDICATED, ODDS TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AS STRONG TROUGHING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN CANADA PUSHES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO
POTENTIAL RESIDUAL EFFECTS FROM THE CUTOFF LOW FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, DUE, IN PART, TO
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS.
AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS ALASKA, A DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE STATE
UNDERNEATH NORTHERLY FLOW, FAVORING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. AS
TROUGHING PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW IS
LIKELY TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THIS POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT INCREASES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, NEAR A POTENTIAL
MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOSE TO THE CONUS/CANADA BORDER. INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION, NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY,
OHIO VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE MID-ALTANTIC DUE TO POTENTIAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF PREDICTED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, DUE TO A PREDICTED
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ACROSS VARIABLES, OFFSET BY
DIFFERENCES IN DEPICTED AMPLITUDE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND WEAKER ANOMALIES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910122 - 19620108 - 20080121 - 19940115 - 19990103
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910121 - 20090126 - 19620106 - 19940115 - 19590202
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO N A NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING N B
UTAH N B ARIZONA B B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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