691
FXCA20 KWBC 242008
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
308 PM EST FRI JAN 24 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 JANUARY 2025 AT 20:10 UTC
ARCTIC BLAST AND HEAVY RAINS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA: A POLAR
HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN USA CONTINUES ENHANCING NORTHERLY WINDS IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THESE ARE PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO/NORTHERN
BELIZE. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...JUST NORTH
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CENTRAL BELIZE. A WEAKENING THERMAL
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY
START LOSING DEFINITION WHILE MEANDERING NORTHWARD. BY SUNDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA...INTO THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CLUSTER IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION DUE TO HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A WEAKED INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...A NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE CONVERCENGE. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75 - 125MM IN COASTAL
BELIZE AND FAR NORTHWEST HONDURAS/PUERTO BARRIOS REGION IN EASTERN
GUATEMALA. IN ISLAS THE LA BAHIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM...WHILE IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM. ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY EXPECT COTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FRONT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST HONDURAS AND THE PUERTO
BARRIOS REGION IN GUATEMALA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM...WHILE
IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA MOIST NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM. BY SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE RETREATING
FRONT. HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO HNORTHERN
HONDURAS INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20 -
45MM.
ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURES IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...A SHEAR LINE IS ORGANIZING. BY FRIDAY
EVENING EXPECT AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JAMAICA
INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITIAN PENINSULA...INTO SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA. THE WEAK SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST JAMAICA AS WELL AS IN SOUTHEAST CUBA. IN
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20 -
45MM. BY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM
DEVELOPING IN EASTERN JAMAICA AND MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WHILE
MAXIMA IN EASTERN JAMAICA DECREASES TO 15MM.
ANOTHER REGION IN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS IS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WEST
PANAMA...WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND INTERACTIONS WITH TERRAIN WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 20 - 45MM/DAY RANGE ON A DAILY BASIS.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT A GRADUAL SHIFT OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AREAS FROM THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRASIL INTO
COLOMBIA...GIVEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN VENTILATION IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE WEST. INDEED...BY
SUNDAY...EXPECT AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERING SOUTH OF PANAMA TO
ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHILE A MOIST AIR MASS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE ARRIVES
FROM THE ORINOQUIA. THIS WILL FAVOR A REACTIVATION OF CONVECTION
TO FAVOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN
CENTAL...NORTHWEST...AND WEST-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE 05 - 10MM/DAY AND 15 - 30MM MAXIMA RANGE. IN TERMS
OF AMOUNTS IN THE GUIANAS AND AMAZON BASIN...THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM IN THE GUIANAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING ALONG THE ITCZ AND
NET...WHILE IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA/EAST COLOMBIA AND NORTGHWEST
BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. ON
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM IN
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME IN ITCZ CONVERGENCE AND MAXIMA OF 25 -
50MM IN EAST/SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHWEST
BRASIL. ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION CLUSTERING IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
ECUADOR WHERE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND ITCZ
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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