085
FXUS06 KWBC 242015
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 24 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2025
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG RIDGING NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER EASTERN ALASKA, A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND A STRONG TROUGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A CUTOFF LOW IS DEPICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST ON EITHER SIDE OF IT OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHEAST, RESPECTIVELY. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA / NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CONUS AND TO THE EAST COAST. IN ITS WAKE, THE STRONG TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE STRONG TROUGH NEAR NEW ENGLAND IS PREDICTED TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE, RIDGING IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO CONVERGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS, DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AS WELL AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL, SOUTHEASTERN, AND PART OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF EASTERN
ALASKA, PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, AS A TROUGH
PROGRESSES FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF
ANOMALOUS COLD EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SURROUNDING
AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEHIND
THE CUTOFF LOW PREDICTED NEARBY. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS FROM ALASKA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, AS ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST. CONVERSELY, TRANSIENT
RIDGING SUPPORTS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND GULF
COAST REGION, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT WATERS.
AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ALASKA, ENHANCED MOISTURE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHEAST ALASKA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE CASCADES, NORTHERN ROCKIES,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING CUTOFF LOW. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO POTENTIAL ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII ASSOCIATED WITH A MEAN TROUGH
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY INHERENT INCREASED UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
A PREDICTED COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2025
AFTER OBSERVING A NEGATIVE NAO FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY, MODELS
ARE GENERALLY PREDICTING A TRANSITION TO THE POSITIVE PHASE DURING THE WEEK-TWO
PERIOD. THIS POTENTIAL TRANSITION IS ILLUSTRATED BY PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ACROSS GREENLAND AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS SPANNING MUCH OF THE
MID-LATITUDE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND A STRONG TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD, RESULTING IN FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN ITS WAKE, A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD, RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND ALASKA. THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN QUARTER AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AS WELL AS
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60
PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES
AND ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE PREDICTED MEAN
TROUGH AXIS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A TRANSITION TO A POSITIVE NAO,
INCREASING THE ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND
WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, DUE, IN
PART, TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS.
AS A DEEP TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALASKA, NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, SUPPORTING ENHANCED CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO SHIFT FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS POTENTIAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT
INCREASES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CASCADES, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. INCREASED CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND BEHIND A RIDGE FORECAST OFF THE EAST
COAST. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN
OHIO VALLEY DUE TO POTENTIAL ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
CONVERSELY, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
HAWAII, DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH IN THE VICINITY.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
HIGH MODEL SPREAD, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE AO AS TIME PROGRESSES.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620108 - 19910122 - 19590202 - 20080118 - 20090127
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620109 - 20090126 - 19910121 - 20080120 - 19590202
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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