981
FXUS01 KWBC 260758
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 26 2025 - 12Z TUE JAN 28 2025
..SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA
..HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUNDAY
...SNOW AND COLDER WEATHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
ONE OF THE THINGS MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THAT
WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM
THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, SO IT WILL TEND TO LOITER OVER THIS
REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD INTERACT
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE BADLY NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE
GREATLY BENEFICIAL, ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAN FALL DIRECTLY OVER
RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, AND THEREFORE A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING IS VALID
FOR THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR RANGES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER COMMENCES BY TUESDAY.
THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS ALSO GOING TO PRODUCE MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA, AS WELL AS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF COMBINED WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED
OVER AREAS THAT HAD RECENT HISTORIC SNOWFALL. A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR THIS REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION,
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND COLD FRONTS, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG, AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER CHILLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MANY OF THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE, A
WARM-UP IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HOWEVER, AN ARCTIC
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH DOWN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT, ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST WEATHER
SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HAMRICK
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