648
FXUS01 KWBC 262001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
VALID 00Z MON JAN 27 2025 - 00Z WED JAN 29 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY...
...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ON
SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE
LOW-LEVEL WIND, WITH DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WHICH
HAS LED THE SPC TO ISSUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CREATE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
ON MONDAY, ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. BY MONDAY EVENING, THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST, FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL STREAM MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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