750
FXUS01 KWBC 270717
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EST MON JAN 27 2025
VALID 12Z MON JAN 27 2025 - 12Z WED JAN 29 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO TODAY...
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
INCREASED SENSITIVITY FROM RECENT WILDFIRES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO DEBRIS
FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING IN BURN SCAR AREAS TODAY. TO THE EAST,
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, IT WILL INTERACT WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IN CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD
PUSH OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IN IT'S WAKE. TO THE NORTH, ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY,
A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY,
THEN A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SWING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW. SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT
LAKES WHERE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST BY WEDNESDAY.
DOLAN
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