788
FXCA20 KWBC 271936
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EST MON JAN 27 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 JANUARY 2025 AT 18:30 UTC
MJO AND LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS: THE MJO IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
IN PHASE 4...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. ANY ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT TO REGIONS
WHERE TRADE WIND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STIMULATES PRECIPITATION.
NOTE THAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A KELVIN WAVE MOVING INTO THE
BASIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL DECREASE
IN UPPER CONVERGENCE DURING THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. YET...THE
UPPER DIVERGENT MJO IS NOWHERE NEAR THE AMERICAS...AND ITS ARRIVAL
MIGHT OCCUR BY MID-FEBRUARY IF IT PROPAGATES COHERENTLY ENOUGH.
UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST USA/NORTHWEST MEXICO: A CLOSED UPPER
LOW IS PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE CENTERING IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROLL SLOWLY EASTWARD TO
ENTER THE PLAINS OF THE USA WEALY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH IN PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED...EXPECT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERITY IN NORTHEAST
COAHUILA DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...MAXIMA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER 10MM/DAY AS THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS IN TEXAS.
FRONT IN THE BAHAMAS: A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT IS
LOSING DEFINITION WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY...AND BY MONDAY
EVENING THE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REGAIN DEFINITION ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECAST JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION GIVEN LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE BASIN.
ENHANCED TRADE WIND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA: A MOIST PLUME IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ON MONDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE TRADE WIND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 10 -
15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM. THIS WILL DECREASE TO 05 -
10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM BY TUESDAY...LASTING AT
LAST INTO THURSDAY GIVEN CONTINUES INFLUENCE OF MOIST EASTERLY
TRADES. ANOTHER REGION WHERE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL STIMULATE
PRECIPITATION IS EASTERN NICARAGUA WHERE ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE FROM MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON MONDAY TO MAXIMA OF 20 -
35MM BY TUESDAY...DECREASING THEREAFTER.
EASTERN CARIBBEAN: SHALLOW MOIST PLUMES ARE FORECAST TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHEAST GREATER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THESE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15
- 25MM ON MONDAUY...CLUSTERING IN REGIONS OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHILE IN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. EXPECT A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATION
ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN
WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO GENERALLY PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER MOIST PLUME ENTERS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
FAVOR LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
ECUADOR...COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS ENHANCED
UPPER DIVERGENCE BUT ALSO TRANSPORTS A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE
PACIFIC BASIN. THE SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER JET FROM THE WEST IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO ECUADOR ON TUESDAY...WHICH OFTEN MEANS THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF UPPER CONVERGENCE AND A DECREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS. IN GENERAL...
THE LARGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLUSTER TO
REGIONS OF ENHANCED ITCZ CONVERGENCE. IN THE ATLANTIC...THE ITCZ
WILL MEANDER FROM THE GUIANAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AMAPA IN
BRASIL. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA IN THE 20 - 45MM/DAY RANGE IN THE
GUIANAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MAXIMA IN THE 20 - 35MM
RANGE IN AMAPA ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE PACIFIC BASIN...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF GENERALLY IN THE 15 - 45MM/DAY RANGE EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST OF ECUADOR INTO THE EJE CAFETERO ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA WHILE THE DRYING
TREND IN ECUADOR REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER JET.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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