980
FXCA20 KWBC 281545
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1045 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 JANUARY 2025 AT 16:00 UTC
..LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
MJO:
THE MJO SIGNAL HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3
AND APPROACHING PHASE 4. THIS MJO PHASE GENERALLY FAVORS UPPER
CONVERGENCE AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.
KELVIN WAVE:
APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ENSO CONDITIONS:
LA NIĆA
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS CARIBBEAN BASIN
UPPER LEVELS:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN USA
PROPAGATING EASTWARD... THIS TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED INTO THE
PLAINS OF THE USA BY WEDNESDAY... AND SLOWLY AMPLIFY BY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ENHANCE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN US SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH LIMITED IMPACTS IN NORTHERN MEXICO.
LOWER LEVELS:
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO TURKS AND CAICOS AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN STARTING TODAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENNING THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE TURKS AND
CAICOS WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY EXTENDING INTO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. AN INDUCED
TROUGH AND IN COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE WILL PROMOTE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES.
..CARIBBEAN
AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE UPPER CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER SHALLOW MOIST
PLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES. THE MOIST PLUME WHEN INTERACTING WITH TERRAIN WILL
ENHANCE AND WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOLLOWING ISOLATED
MAXIMA.
LESSER ANTILLES: MAXIMA OF 15MM ON THURSDAY.
PUERTO RICO: MAXIMA OF 15MM ON WEDNESDAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ON
THURSDAY.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: MAXIMA OF 15 ON WEDNESDAY. AND MAXIMA OF
15MM ON THURSDAY.
EASTERN CUBA: MAXIMA OF 15MM ON TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
JAMAICA:MAXIMA OF 10MM ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA OF 15 ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
..CENTRAL AMERICA
AS THE MJO CONTINUES PROPAGATING EASTWARD...THE CARIBBEAN
LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...LEADING TO INCREASED
PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TRADE WINDS STIMULATED BY
THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE PLUME
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND THE
INTERACTION WITH TOPOGRAPHY CAN FURTHER INFLUENCE PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
BELIZE: MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COSTA RICA: MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON WEDNESDAY... MAXIMA OF 15 -
30MM ON THURSDAY.
EASTERN NICARAGUA: MAXIMA OF 15 - 30MM ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA OF 15
ON WEDNESDAY.. AND MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON THURSDAY.
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...
AND VENEZUELA...WHICH TYPICALLY PROMOTES ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE PROPAGATION OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER JET FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL ALSO TRANSPORT
A DRIER AIR MASS FROM THE PACIFIC BASIN. THIS UPPER CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO RESTRICT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
ACCUMULATION. A ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ WILL ENHANCE
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY
DECREASING BY THURSDAY OVER ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBIA. IN
THE FOLLOWING REGION A MAXIMA OF IS EXPECTED:
CENTRAL COAST OF ECUADOR: MAXIMA OF 30 - 60MM ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA
OF 20 - 35MM ON WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF 20 - 45MM ON THURSDAY.
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
TO CONCENTRATE IN AREAS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ). THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE
MEANDER FROM THE GUIANAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AMAPA IN
BRASIL. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF:
GUIANAS AND AMAPA: MAXIMA 25 - 50MM ON TUESDAY...MAXIMA OF 20 -
35MMM ON WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON THURSDAY.
LEDESMA...(WPC)
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