473
FXUS01 KWBC 020716
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 AM EST SUN FEB 02 2025
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 02 2025 - 12Z TUE FEB 04 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHEAST...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST OUT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COUPLED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING SOUTH FROM SOUTHWEST
CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH
AS THE SAWTOOTH AND THE TETONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GENERALLY
1 TO 2 FEET OF NEW SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE CASCADES, BUT AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE
THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MAXIMIZE THE
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
SOME OF THIS VERY HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BE
INFLUENCED BY A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND THE INTERIOR FOOTHILLS AND UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. GOING THROUGH MONDAY, AN
ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED LOCALLY, WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS. FLOODING WILL BECOME A NOTABLE CONCERN
ACROSS THESE AREAS, AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS WILL
INCLUDE A THREAT FOR SOME BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING LOCALLY WITH
DEBRIS FLOW AND MUDSLIDE ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE.
FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST, A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
MIDWEST WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ALONG WITH ADJACENT AREAS OF
NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4+ INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME FREEZING
RAIN/ICING CONCERNS FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA ON MONDAY, AND
GRADUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN
ITS WAKE WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BEHIND IT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION BY MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND LOCALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOCALLY STAYING BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER, SOUTH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE POOLED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL INCLUDE
TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS A RESULT, AND FOR
SOME AREAS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ORRISON
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