718
FXUS01 KWBC 030801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST MON FEB 03 2025
VALID 12Z MON FEB 03 2025 - 12Z WED FEB 05 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CASCADES, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
AREAS OF FLOODING LIKELY...
...STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST OUT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH WIDESPREAD
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUPLED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTERING SOUTH FROM
SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL DRIVE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS THE
SAWTOOTH, BITTERROOTS, TETONS AND ABSAROKA RANGE. IN FACT, THE
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING STEERED UP THE LARGER SCALE
PATTERN NORTHEASTWARD UP ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OREGON, AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND INCLUDING EVEN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. FOR THE CASCADES, GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHASTA/SISKIYOU
RANGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3+ FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE DEEP LAYER FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS ALSO OVERRUNNING
ARCTIC AIR THAT IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
AND THIS COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW HERE JUST EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE
HERE AS WELL.
THE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGING THE HEAVY FLOODING RAIN
CONCERNS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THIS BOUNDARY, AND
THIS COUPLED WITH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE
FLOW/FORCING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTAL RANGES AND
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS SHOULD YIELD AS MUCH AS AN
ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA GOING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE FINALLY SETTLING
SOUTHWARD, BUT THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL DOWN INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE BAY AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED HERE, AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN DEPICTED GOING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST, A COMBINATION OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
ARRIVING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TODAY ACROSS AREAS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY
SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PULL AWAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THEN CROSSING THE REGION AND BRINGING A NEW SURGE OF
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING LOCALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOCALLY STAYING BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER, SOUTH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POOLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL INCLUDE TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE
80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
ORRISON
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