054
FXUS01 KWBC 031811
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
110 PM EST MON FEB 03 2025
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 04 2025 - 00Z THU FEB 06 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CASCADES, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND AREAS OF FLOODING
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY...
...STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST OUT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUPLED WITH
COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DRIVE HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CASCADES AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS BRINGING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BEING STEERED UP THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN NORTHEASTWARD UP ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OREGON, AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AND INCLUDING EVEN SOME LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. FOR THE
CASCADES, GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH AMOUNTS OVER A FOOT
EXPECTED FROM THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE DEEP LAYER FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING
ARCTIC AIR COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGING THE FLOODING THREAT FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS. A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD YIELD AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING A
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PULL AWAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THEN CROSSING THE REGION AND BRINGING A RENEWED SURGE OF
COLD AIR. WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRUNNING A RETURNING WARM FRONT OVER
THIS COLD AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD, IMPACTFUL
FREEZING RAIN EVENT FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THIS MAY CAUSE, THE HIGHEST ICE STORM POTENTIAL (WITH
1/4 INCH OR GREATER ICE ACCRETION) IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN
MARYLAND NORTHWARD INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS OF PENNSYLVANIA,
WHERE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY.
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOWER 48 WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL WELL BELOW AVERAGE. ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LOCALLY STAYING BELOW ZERO. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ROTH
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