398
FXCA20 KWBC 031816
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
116 PM EST MON FEB 03 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 3 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 17:50 UTC
..LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
MJO:
THE MJO SIGNAL HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
PHASE 6. THIS PHASE STILL FAVORS UPPER CONVERGENCE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS IT PROGRESSES INTO PHASE 7.
KELVIN WAVE:
NONE SIGNIFICANT KELVIN WAVE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENSO CONDITIONS:
LA NINA
.. SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS MEXICO
UPPER LEVELS: A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT.
MID LEVELS: A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH HIGH VORTICITY OVER THE
EASTERN OF MEXICO...INDICATES A STRONG AREA OF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS VORTICITY EXITS THE REGION WHILE WEAKENING
EXPECT A DECREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REDUCED
OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
LOWER-LEVELS: A MOISTURE PLUME FROM LOWER TO MID LEVELS IS
APPROACHING INTO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN COMBINATION
WITH THE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ...EASTERN OAXACA.
..PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO
TAMAULIPAS...VERACRUZ..EASTERN OAXACA: A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TAMAULIPAS: A MAXIMA OF OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
UPPER LEVELS: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES PROPAGATING EASTWARD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN...TO
POTENTIALLY INCREASE THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IN PUERTO RICO AND
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MID-LEVELS: THE RIDGE AT MID LEVELS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE
WIND INVERSION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. FURTHER DRY AIR AT THIS
LEVEL CONTINUES DOMINATING OVER CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR
STABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVENTION OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. THIS RIDGE WILL
FAVOR THE INTENSITY OF THE TRADE WIND OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THOSE
CONDITIONS ARE TYPICAL OF LA NINA AND DURING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
LOWER LEVELS:
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY DUE TO THE LOCAL DIURNAL HEATING
THROUGH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER
ANTILLES FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
..PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
THE FOLLOWING ISOLATED MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
LESSER ANTILLES: MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON MONDAY...TUESDAY
PUERTO RICO: MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF 10 - 15MM ON MONDAY.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: MAXIMA OF 10 -15MM ON MONDAY...TUESDAY. A
MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON WEDNESDAY.
JAMAICA: MAXIMA OF 10 - 15MM ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
..CENTRAL AMERICA
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN INTENSE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. THESE AND THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR INTERMITTENT SHOWERS IN OVER COSTA RICA...EASTERN
NICARAGUA... NORTHEASTERN OF HONDURAS...BELIZE AND PANAMA. THE
INTERACTION WITH TOPOGRAPHY CAN FURTHER INFLUENCE LOCAL MAXIMA OF
RAINFALL IN THE REGION.
..PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED AREAS:
BELIZE: MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS: MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA: A MAXIMA OF 15MM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON WEDNESDAY.
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WEST PANAMA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON
WEDNESDAY.
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECED TO CONTINUE OVER
ECUADOR...COLOMBIA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EVOLVING INTO A UPPER CONVERGENCE BY
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER LEVELS SEEMS TO PROVIDE WEAK SUPPORT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN ECUADOR.
THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE ONSHORE DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ. IF THE FLOW BECOME MORE
PERPENDICULAR IT COULD ENHANCE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERNGENCE OVER ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...IT
SEEMS THAT MODEL ARE OVERESTIMATING THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION.THEREFORE...THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
CENTRAL COAST OF ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 25 -
50MM ON MONDAY. A MAXIMA OF 20- 40 ON TUESDAY. A DECREASE BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15 -25MM.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THE ITCZ IS LOCATED ON MONDAY OVER AMAPA.
ACCELERATED TRADE WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE THE RISK
OF ECHO TRAINING AND AN INCREASE IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ON
MONDAY OVER AOTHERN GUIANAS AND AMAPA. BY TUESDAY THE ITCZ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DECREASING THE PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
AROUND THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA.
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA AREA EXPECTED:
AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 50 - 100MM ON MONDAY. A MAXIMA OF 15- 25MM ON
TUESDAY.
NORTHERN GUIANAS: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON MONDAY...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERN GUIANAS: A MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON MONDAY. A MAXIMA OD 15 -
25MM ON TUESDAY.
COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE REST OF THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA PRECIPITATION MAXIMA WILL
BE ALONG THE
NET ITCZ...WITH MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF 20 - 35MM FOR THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
FOR GRAPHICAL INFORMATION:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
LEDESMA...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC
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