870
FXUS06 KWBC 032001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 03 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 13 2025
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH THROUGH
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING 210M OVER ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES (>80%) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FORECAST FIVE DAY MEAN TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS ARE IN EXCESS OF 15 DEGF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT SIGNALS TODAY RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS
LEADING TO A RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 80% ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND
WITH THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS
UPSTREAM OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN CONUS MAY BRING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, THEREBY INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES IN
THIS REGION. THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE MORE MIXED AND NEAR-NORMAL IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK. IN
ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
EASTERN MAINLAND, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH MIXED GUIDANCE
AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 17 2025
THE WEEK-2 MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND
WITH YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK. THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY
NEGATIVE OVER THE NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN BROAD CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CONUS INTO
THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE FULL LATITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND ALASKA REMAINS FORECAST WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEEDING
210M IN ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DURING
WEEK-2, AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. THERE ARE ALSO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CONUS OUTSIDE OF THE PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST
AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. IN THESE STATES, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED BENEATH MID-LEVEL POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE MAINLAND, WITH BELOW-NORMAL
SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STRONGLY FAVORED.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST
PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH CONTINUED INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCES IN
THIS REGION. THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF WEEK-2.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA, DISPLACED FROM THE STROM TRACK FURTHER NORTH. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL IS
FAVORED ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570203 - 19880128 - 19890201 - 19540115 - 19820209
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890201 - 19880129 - 19570203 - 19540119 - 19820209
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 13 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 17 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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