246
FXUS01 KWBC 040750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2025
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 04 2025 - 12Z THU FEB 06 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND CONCERNS FOR FLOODING...
...NEW STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THURSDAY...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUPLED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
SETTLE SOUTH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL ALSO FOR THE COASTAL
RANGES AND SOME OF LOWER ELEVATIONS GIVEN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FARTHER INLAND INTO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS THE
SAWTOOTH, BITTERROOTS, TETONS AND ABSAROKA RANGE. MUCH OF THIS
SNOWFALL WILL BE CONNECTED TO THE PERSISTENT AND STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTING CALIFORNIA WILL
ONLY GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE FRONT AND BRING STRONG
PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE COASTAL RANGES, PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEY, AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE REGION WITH CONCERNS FOR
FLOODING WHICH WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE BAY AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL RANGES, WITH 3 TO 6+
INCHES FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MEANWHILE, FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, AS
MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET OF NEW SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST, THE STORY GOING THROUGH TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST, WITH THIS AIRMASS IN A MODERATING
FASHION GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
THOUGH AHEAD OF A NEW STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DRIVE A CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL, BUT ALSO A
SWATH OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ESPECIALLY
AREAS OF MONTANA WHERE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT INVOLVING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MID-SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S WHICH
WILL BE LOCALLY 20 TO 30+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
ORRISON
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