121
FXUS01 KWBC 041828
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
127 PM EST TUE FEB 04 2025
VALID 00Z WED FEB 05 2025 - 00Z FRI FEB 07 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TODAY BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND CONCERNS FOR FLOODING...
...NEW STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY THURSDAY...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
A VERY STARK SEPARATION OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BISECTS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL A
VERY STRONG SURFACE FRONT. NO GREATER IS THIS NOTICEABLE THAN
ACROSS MONTANA INTO WYOMING, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
BELOW ZERO AT THE CANADIAN BORDER BUT RISE IN THE 40S, 50S AND
EVEN 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES STATES OF UTAH AND COLORADO.
INFLUENCE OF A MODEST SURGE OF COLD AIR YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS HAS DROPPED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO WEST TEXAS WHERE IT IS STARTING TO STALL AND MODERATE WITH
CLEARING SKIES BUT TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AREA. THE FRONT IS
FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A SLIGHT DIP IN THE JET STREAM
HAS ALLOWED A COLDER SURGE/FRONTAL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY AND AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. LITTLE MOISTURE GENERALLY AS RESULTED IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH EXCEPTION OF A DAY OR SO MORE OF DOWNSTREAM LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WITH INCREASED
SUN IT WILL NOT BE TOO BAD.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A PERSISTENT, FAIRLY STATIONARY DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS LOW HAS BEEN PROVIDING A STRONG
GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE
DIRECTED AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT
STARTING TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BRINGING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SANTA LUCIA RANGE (AND DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST). THE AR WILL START TO
ROUND CAPE CONCEPTION LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT
THE CONNECTION TO THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL BECOME SEVERED AND THE
PLUME WILL DRY OUT BRINGING ONLY LIGHTER SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AND LOWER
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE IN THE 2-3" WITH SPOTS
OF 4-5" IN FAVORED OROGRAPHICS. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR TODAY IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, SAN FRANCISCO BAY
REGION AND SANTA LUCIA RANGES; WHILE THE MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS TO
THE WESTERN TRANSVERSE RANGE.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXTENDING WELL INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ALOFT AND WILL START TO STREAM OVER THOSE AREAS OF WELL BELOW
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH, THIS
WILL RESULT IN HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FARTHER INLAND INTO THE
INTERIOR MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS THE SAWTOOTH, BITTERROOTS, TETONS
AND ABSAROKA RANGE. MUCH OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE CONNECTED TO THE
PERSISTENT AND STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY INTO TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CASCADES
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET OF NEW SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED.
THIS SURGE OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE QUICKLY EASTWARD,
DRY OUT AND DESCENT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WYOMING AND A WARM FRONTAL SURGE OVERTAKES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
STRONG DRY LINE OUT THROUGH THE STAKED PLAINS/CAP ROCK AND PRESENT
AN ELEVATED (LEVEL 1 OF 3) OF FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NM
AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT SE CO, SW KS, OK/TX PANHANDLES.
TEMPERATURES OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL PRESS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS TODAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S-80S. WEDNESDAY, THE 70S/80S REACHES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH RECORD
POTENTIAL THERE TOO AND BY THURSDAY A LARGE NUMBER OF CITES ACROSS
TEXAS TO KY/TN AND GA WILL ALSO HAVE A SOLID CHANCE OF RECORD
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
THIS SURGE OF ABOVE AVERAGE AIR WILL COME WITH SOME INCREASED
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF; WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST LIFTING
THE WARM FRONT BACK ACROSS THE TN INTO OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY,
BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS KY WHERE GROUNDS ARE FAIRLY
SATURATED AND POSE A LOW END, SCATTERED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH. HOWEVER,
THE GREATER CONCERN IS AS THE MOISTURE LIFTS OVER THE FRONT, THE
REMAINING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SOLID CHANCE FOR A
BROAD AREA OF FREEZING RAINFALL BEFORE THE WARMER AIR CAN REACH
THE AREA. EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS (E KS/N MO) THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL START TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
STARTING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH SPOTS OF .10" POSSIBLE NEAR ST.
LOUIS. WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE,
FREEZING RAIN AREAS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SPOTS OVER .25" ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF W
MARYLAND, WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. TOTALS OF .10-.25" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS N INDIANA
INTO OHIO, ALL MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PLEASE
KEEP ADVISED THROUGH LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE UPDATES AND FORECASTS.
GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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