360
FXCA20 KWBC 061405
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 AM EST THU FEB 06 2025
WEEKLY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FEB 06 14 UTC:
A SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH CONFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA
LATE TONIGHT...THEN PASS OVER PR/USVI ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...KEEPING PR/USVI ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE.
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...INFLUENCING OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. LIKE THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FOLLOWING WORKWEEK.
THIS PATTERN OF VERTICALLY STACKED HIGH PRESSURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION.
AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS OVER PR/USVI WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST USA TODAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
THIS WEEKEND...AS A STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA AS IT EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ESSENTIALLY DOMINATING THE LOCAL WIND FLOW.
THE COMBINATION OF ALL THE FEATURES WILL KEEP THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO BE ON AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE BRIEF
PATCHES OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
STABILITY EXPECTED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE RAINFALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE THAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSING
BY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AT
A TIME. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL ALSO SUGGEST THAT ANY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WOULD BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE EGDI ALGORITHM. THE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OBSERVED EACH DAY MAY BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT THE TIME. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE PEAKS IN MOISTURE WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING SHOWERS COULD BE
EXPECTED OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. THAT SAID...THE BRIEF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY CAUSE MORE
PROLONGED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS STRONGLY
FAVORS THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE OTHER SECTORS OF EASTERN
PR COULD OBSERVE OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN. CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PR
IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERN PR COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.5 TO
1.0 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS DUE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE
USVI ARE ALSO FORECAST TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES DUE
TO THE BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
ALAMO...WPC(USA)
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