948
FXCA20 KWBC 061637
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1136 AM EST THU FEB 06 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 6 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 16:00 UTC
..LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS
MJO:
THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES PHASE 7 IN
THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
KELVIN WAVE:
NONE SIGNIFICANT KELVIN WAVE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ENSO CONDITIONS:
LA NINA
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT. TYPICAL LA NINA
CONDITIONS DURING FEBRUARY PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN.
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
UPPER LEVELS: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
BE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. EXPECT LIMITED IMPACT IN THE
GREATER ANTILLES.
MID-LEVELS: THE RIDGE AT MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...TO
CONTINUE ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND INVERSION OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. FURTHER DRY AIR AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES DOMINATING OVER
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR STABLE CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES...WHICH WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVENTION OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES.
LOWER LEVELS:
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC PROMOTING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PLUME PROPAGATING OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES....WILL FAVOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
..PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN
THE FOLLOWING ISOLATED MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
LESSER ANTILLES: MAXIMA OF 15 - 20MM ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: MAXIMA OF 10MM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
EASTERN CUBA: MAXIMA OF 10MM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PUERTO RICO: A MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY.
..CENTRAL AMERICA
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA'S CARIBBEAN BASIN. NICARAGUA...
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE WESTERN PART OF
PANAMA...CONTINUES TO BE THE REGION OF INTEREST.
..PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
BELIZE: MAXIMA IN THE RANGE OF 10 - 15 MM ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
EASTERN NICARAGUA: MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FOR THURSDAY...A MAXIMA
20-35MM ON FRIDAY. A MAXIMA 20 - 30MM ON SATURDAY.
NORTHERN HONDURAS: MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF WEST PANAMA: A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FOR
THURSDAY. A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
..SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS OVER TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT
DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND UPPER CONVERGENCE... LOW-LEVELS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR WARM CONVECTION AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERIOR OF THE COAST OF ECUADOR AND ALONG THE ANDESĀ DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND PERPENDICULAR ONSHORE FLOW.
THEREFORE...THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE ANTICIPATED:
NORTHERN AND COAST OF ECUADOR: A MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ON THURSDAY
AND A MAXIMA OF 20 - 35MM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 25 - 50MM ON THURSDAY AND A MAXIMA
OF 20 35MM ON FRIDAY SATURDAY.
NORTHERN COLOMBIA: A MAXIMA OF 15 - 25MM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
THE REST OF ECUADOR: A MAXIMA OF 15 -25MM ON FRIDAY.
THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA WILL WEAKEN BY SATURDAY... INCREASING THE POTENTIAL OF
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PLUME
PROPAGATING OVER THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA WILL SUPPORT THE INCREASE
IN RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE PEAK IS EXPECTED TO
BE ON SATURDAY.
THE FOLLOWING MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED:
THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA: A MAXIMA OF 20 - 40MM ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
TYPICAL PRECIPITATION MAXIMA ALONG THE NET ITCZ OVER THE TROPICAL
SOUTH AMERICA...AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL MAXIMA IS PREDICTED. SOME
AREAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 25 - 50MM/DAY RANGE
DURING THE FOLLOWING DAYS.
FOR GRAPHICAL INFORMATION:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/INTERNATIONAL/CRB_DAY1-3.SHTML
LEDESMA...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC
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