505
FXUS06 KWBC 062002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 06 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) INTO MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER- AND MIDDLE-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES (>80%) ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WITH CHANCES EXCEEDING 80% ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND WITH THE
STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS UPSTREAM OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, WHERE SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES (>60%) ARE ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, OREGON AND NEVADA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED
ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. EARLY IN WEEK-2, ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST, BEFORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2, WITH
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS TROUGHING IS CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLIFIED THAN PRIOR
FORECASTS. POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE WEST, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM PARTS OF FOUR CORNERS
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHEAST. THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES MAINTAIN STRONG CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS WITH
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MAINLAND.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE STRONGEST
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN WITH ONE OR TWO STORM SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY INCREASE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS DURING WEEK-2. IN THE EASTERN CONUS,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. IN ALASKA, NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR ALASKA. IN HAWAII, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS OFFSET BY LOW PROBABILITIES AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880129 - 19590214 - 19750203 - 19540117 - 19890202
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750202 - 19590214 - 19890201 - 19540119 - 19570204
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 16 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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