494
FXUS01 KWBC 091821
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 PM EST SUN FEB 09 2025
VALID 00Z MON FEB 10 2025 - 00Z WED FEB 12 2025
..LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST WHERE A FEW
LOW RECORDS MAY FALL THROUGH MID-WEEK...
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM WITH DEVELOPING WINTRY MIX STRETCHING
FROM OZARKS THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN DEEP
SOUTH...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
LAST VESTIGES OF SNOW TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, IN ITS
WAKE, THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT BELT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE ANOTHER VERY WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM
PRESSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. LAKE ERIE WILL BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE,
BUT 1-3" IS POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM IN N PA/W NY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS STARTING
TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND WILL USHER IN WELL
BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AT NEARLY 20-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE MODERATING A BIT AND SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS COLD AIR WILL LEAK THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS WELL AND WITH 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE MAY REACH A FEW POTENTIAL LOW RECORDS, PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH WITH LARGER SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CONNECTING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION; RETURN MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR WILL EMERGE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTEN
THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY EAST TO
THE CAROLINAS BY TUESDAY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS N LA, MS, AL
INTO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS/PLATEAUS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE STEERING CURRENTS FOR
THE CELLS MAY RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
ALONG THE NORTH-SIDE OF THE FRONT, THE COLD AIR DUMPING IN WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SNOWS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH NORTHERN KENTUCKY,
WESTERN VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME WINTRY MIX
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS; HOWEVER,
EASTWARD, COLD AIR DAMNED IN FROM PRIOR FRONT LEAVING WILL ALLOW
FOR BROADER AREA OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
WITH HEAVY SNOW FALL RATES ACROSS VIRGINIA. A TIGHT GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED AND MAY VARY NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE PIECES MOVE INTO PLACE. PLEASE STAY ADVISED BY YOUR LOCAL
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.
GALLINA
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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