296
FXUS01 KWBC 100803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
302 AM EST MON FEB 10 2025
VALID 12Z MON FEB 10 2025 - 12Z WED FEB 12 2025
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY...
...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
0.25 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ON MONDAY, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH A FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE
GREAT BASIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 25 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY AND EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, CONTINUING TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL/PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY.
ALSO ON MONDAY, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTERSECTING THE
COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS, PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM EXITING THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR MAY (>50% CHANCE) PRODUCE
AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
MOREOVER, OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS, A WINTRY
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY YIELD SOME ICE ACCUMULATION OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANY AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL ON UNTREATED SURFACES.IN ADDITION, A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM WITH IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER, INCLUDING SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN, WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE ALL LIKELY. FURTHERMORE, HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM RICHMOND TO PHILADELPHIA.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AND LIKELY BE HEAVY, WET
SNOW, MAKING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. TRAVEL WILL BECOME
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
MOREOVER, A LONG-DURATION FREEZING RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE BLUE
RIDGE FROM FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
MORE THAN 0.25 INCH OF ICE IS LIKELY (70%). THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE.
ELSEWHERE, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND FROM LAKES
SUPERIOR, MICHIGAN, AND ONTARIO. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU IN NEW YORK STATE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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