919
FXUS01 KWBC 101956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EST MON FEB 10 2025
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 11 2025 - 00Z THU FEB 13 2025
...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THREE HIGH IMPACT MAJOR STORMS...
...HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY FROM THE MID TO UPPER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC FROM STORM #1, ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS TO BRING FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
THREAT FROM EASTERN TEXAS, EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM STORMS # 1
& # 2...
..WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE WITH STORM # 2 FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-WEST, LOWER GREAT
LAKES, NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND...
...STORM # 3 SET TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWS. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THREATS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE BURN SCARS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PRODUCING THREE SIGNIFICANT STORMS
AFFECTING LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NATION. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS THE LEAD STORM SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD
QUICKLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD DURING TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. HEAVY
SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION
AREA FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE SNOW TOTALS OF 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW, SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. ACROSS THESE AREAS, THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND ICE
WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT AND DANGEROUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE
AREAS. HEAVY RAINS, FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT WITH THIS LEAD STORM ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE HEAVY
SNOW AND ICE THREAT. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WHERE RECENT RAINS
HAVE RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH STREAM FLOWS. THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THIS LEAD SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
STORM, WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING.
AS THE LEAD STORM IS AFFECTING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, STORM #
2 WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY, MID-WEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO INTO MUCH
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AS THIS STORM FORMS AND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD, ADDITIONAL WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A LARGE REGION OF
SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN KANSAS, NORTHERN
MISSOURI, FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, SOUTHEAST IOWA, NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN, NEARLY ALL OF THE LOWER PENINSULA
OF MICHIGAN, FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND FAR NORTHERN MAINE.
AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NEW YORK WILL SEE LESS SNOW TOTALS AS THE SNOW MAY MIX
WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
SIMILAR TO THE LEAD SYSTEM, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH STORM # 2 WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN, FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING THREATS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM EASTERN TEXAS, ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, LARGE SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI, NORTHERN ALABAMA, NORTHERN GEORGIA, EASTERN
TENNESSEE, THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH MUCH OF THIS REGION SEEING HEAVY RAINS
FROM THE FIRST AND SECOND STORM SYSTEMS.
THE THIRD MAJOR STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE LOWER 48 OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
TOWARD CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINS AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY, SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WHILE ALSO CONTINUING
TO AFFECT CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BURN SCARS FROM THE
RECENT DEVASTATING WILDFIRES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE
INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ON THURSDAY
AS THE HEAVY RAINS SPREAD INTO THIS REGION.
ORAVEC
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