919
FXUS06 KWBC 102026
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 10 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2025
MODEL MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A PATTERN OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ARCTIC REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MOST OF GREENLAND AND
ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THESE POSITIVE ANOMALIES
EXTEND ACROSS ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PREVAILS IN THIS REGION. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW MORE OF A
FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THIS REGION COMPARED EARLIER MODELS, WHICH FAVORED TWO
SEPARATE ANOMALY CENTERS DIVIDED BY RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS OVER AND NEAR THE
GULF OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF THE STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA, ANOMALOUSLY LOW MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS REACH FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS AND EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
IN CONCERT WITH THE ABNORMALLY LOW HEIGHTS, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE HEIGHTS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SIGNIFICANTLY SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE
CHANCES EXCEED 80%. ODDS FOR COLD WEATHER DECREASE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE PERIOD BEHIND A STORM SYSTEM
DEPARTING THE EAST COAST EARLY. MEANWHILE, WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE WESTERN CONUS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RISING DURING THE PERIOD. THE
REFORECASTS TAKE THE WARMTH CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN THE RAW
AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL OUTPUT IN THE WEST. FOR NOW, LESS WARMTH IN THE
NORTHWEST IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES OF A
TRANSITIONAL REGIME. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS FOR WARMTH IN THE SOUTHWEST, AS
INDICATED BY ALMOST ALL TOOLS.
SIMILARLY, THE TRANSITIONAL REGIME OVER ALASKA, WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS, KEEPS THE ODDS FOR EITHER EXTREME OF TEMPERATURE RELATIVELY LOW, WITH
SOME ENHANCED ODDS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE SUBNORMAL READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, WITH ODDS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT STATEWIDE AND TOPPING 80 PERCENT
IN CENTRAL AREAS FROM EASTERN OAHU THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
INCLUDING MOLOKAI, MAUI, LANAI, AND KAHO'OLAWE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CONUS
AS MID-LEVEL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A DEPARTING STORM WILL BE AFFECTING
THE EAST COAST EARLY WHILE ANOTHER STORM FORMS TO THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS LATER. TOGETHER, THESE SYSTEMS INCREASE THE ODDS
FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION OVER MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, TOPPING 40% IN MOST AREAS. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM
TRACK, THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN REACHES OF MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
FARTHER WEST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE 500-HPA HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE AREA. PREVAILING ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FAVOR DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, BROAD MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BRING ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ALASKA, ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY OF A
TRANSITIONING REGIME KEEPS THE ODDS RELATIVELY LOW. FARTHER NORTH, AFTER
MOISTURE GETS OROGRAPHICALLY WRUNG-OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION, WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORED STATEWIDE,
EXCEPT ON SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,
FOR GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN, INCLUDING SURFACE STORM TRACKS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY THE TRANSITIONAL NATURE
OF THE REGIME IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE
REFORECAST TEMPERATURES AND THE BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW OUTPUT FROM THE
ENSEMBLES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2025
DURING WEEK-2, THE GENERAL MEAN PATTERN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY
PERIOD, FEATURING ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC AND ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, SUBNORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES, HOWEVER, THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE ARCTIC AND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH HEIGHTS DRIFTING TOWARD
NORMAL BY DAY 14. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HANGS ON TO MORE AMPLIFICATION
LONGER THAN MOST OTHER TOOLS, AND THIS SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORED, WITH SOME
OF THE DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE OTHER MODELS REFLECTING DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AMONG THE DIFFERENT MEMBERS OF THE
ENSEMBLES, WASHING OUT THE ANOMALIES TOO QUICKLY. THIS PARTICULARLY IMPACTS THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE MODELS MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A MODERATE FULL-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER MODELS BY BRINGING LOWER 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NEAR WESTERN CANADA MORE QUICKLY THAN THE
OTHERS, WHICH HOLD SUBNORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC. THE MAJORITY SOLUTION MAINTAINING HIGHER 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS FAVORED AT
THIS TIME, BUT THIS IS WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE.
THIS PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS OUTSIDE SOUTHERNMOST FLORIDA, WITH ODDS EXCEEDING 60%
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, THE OHIO VALLEY,
PLUS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.
MEANWHILE, THE FULL-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER WEST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND, TO A LESSER
EXTENT, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND INTO MOST OF ALASKA, FAVORING
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND. CHANCES
FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMTH EXCEED 50% IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES TO STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
HAWAII DURING WEEK-2.
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE
IN THE EASTERN CONUS FOR WEEK-2. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE DEPARTING THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS (THIS IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
EXPECTED DURING THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD). THEREAFTER, THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLES
FAVOR MORE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND THUS MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF WEEK-2 THAN MOST OTHER TOOLS. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH KEEPS MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE
OTHER MODELS SEEMS MORE A RESULT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE WAVES RATHER THAN AN INDICATION OF DEAMPLIFICATION, AT
LEAST IN PART. AS A RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED WHERE
INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION, BUT EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHEAST GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE LOW PRESSURE WAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION. IN ADDITION,
THE ODDS FOR INCREASED PRECIPITATION IS RAISED TO OVER 40% IN MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM TRACK, SLIGHTLY INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUE
THROUGH WEEK-2 IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE WEST COAST UNDER CONTINUING
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. MEANWHILE, SOME MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR LOWER
500-HPA HEIGHTS AND THUS SURPLUS PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THIS IS
NOT GENERALLY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION, IT DOES INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE GIVEN THE POOR MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERN SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA, WITH AMOUNTS FAVORED TO BE NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FARTHER NORTH AFTER MOISTURE IS OROGRAPHICALLY REMOVED.
MEANWHILE, THE CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS LEAN TOWARD SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ACROSS HAWAII THAN FORECAST FOR THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD, RESULTING IN
NEAR-NORMAL TOTALS BEING FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE STATE OUTSIDE THE BIG ISLAND,
WHERE CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL AMOUNTS ARE INCREASED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, AS MODEL
AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DECLINE COMPARED TO THE 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SOME INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE DERIVED
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS REMAIN.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890202 - 19570124 - 19880131 - 19890214 - 19620224
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890202 - 19880131 - 19570124 - 19890215 - 19570129
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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