036
FXUS01 KWBC 110834
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 11 2025 - 12Z THU FEB 13 2025
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY; HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...
...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH 0. 50 INCHES OF ICE
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH 0. 10
INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD
TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ON TUESDAY, AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL /SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE
COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 25 TO 35
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTH OF THE ARTIC HIGH, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPAWN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD, ALMOST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ALSO
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTERSECTING THE COLD AIR
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS, PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
TUESDAY, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEGINS TUESDAY. THE STORM
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM RICHMOND TO PHILADELPHIA. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL SOMETIMES REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR, WITH HEAVY, WET SNOW
TOTALS OF 4-8 INCHES EXPECTED. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE, AND TRAVEL MAY BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS (ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE).
IN ADDITION, A LONG-DURATION FREEZING RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE BLUE RIDGE FROM FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF
0.25 INCH PLUS FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-50%) FOR 0.50 INCH PLUS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL AND MAY CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. FURTHER, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL
EXPAND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FURTHERMORE, A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO, CANADA, BY THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF HAIL.
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND
LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF
AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR AND A (>50% CHANCE) OF PRODUCING AT LEAST 5
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS WILL
PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATION OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE. ANY AMOUNT
OF FREEZING RAIN COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON UNTREATED
SURFACES.
ONE MORE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CALIFORNIA.
ELSEWHERE, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DOWNWIND FROM LAKES
SUPERIOR, MICHIGAN, AND ONTARIO ON TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU IN NEW YORK STATE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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