303
FXUS01 KWBC 112007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2025
VALID 00Z WED FEB 12 2025 - 00Z FRI FEB 14 2025
...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
...NEW WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND SOME ICE TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPACTING THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES,
MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GOING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS
TO CALIFORNIA AS HEAVY SNOWFALL ARRIVES OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MULTIPLE WINTER STORMS IMPACT THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A NEW ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER ARRIVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO CALIFORNIA. INITIALLY, A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND ICING
FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A
CONTINUATION OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE
ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OCCURS. SEVERAL INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH UP TO
A 0.25" TO 0.50" OF ICE ACCUMULATION LOCALLY. DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE SNOW AND ICE. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT AS THIS OCCURS, THERE
WILL BE A NEW WINTER STORM ORGANIZING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST WHICH WILL YIELD A SWATH OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND A NARROW AXIS OF ICE. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8+ INCHES OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN AND ALSO UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS STORM WILL
ALSO FOSTER HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND MID-SOUTH, A
COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THESE STORMS SYSTEMS WILL BRING A THREAT
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GOING THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN SEPARATELY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. ALL
OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, A NEW ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE CROSSING THE WEST COAST
AND IMPACTING CALIFORNIA BY ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES OF
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA FOOTHILLS.
FLOODING IS EXPECTED BE A NOTABLE CONCERN, AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR THE LOS ANGELES BASIN AND ADJACENT
COASTAL TERRAIN THAT RECENTLY EXPERIENCED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY WILL
BE AT RISK FOR SEEING DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW
ACTIVITY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS VERY
SENSITIVE AREA OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE BURN SCARS ARE NOTED.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH UP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED, AND LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ORRISON
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