631
FXUS01 KWBC 121805
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
104 PM EST WED FEB 12 2025
VALID 00Z THU FEB 13 2025 - 00Z SAT FEB 15 2025
...SECOND QUICK HITTING CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH CORNUCOPIA OF WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY: HEAVY SNOW
IN THE GREAT LAKES/INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND, FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL & NORTHERN APPALACHIANS,
SEVERE WEATHER & HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH...
...STRONG PACIFIC STORM TO ENTER THE CENTRAL WEST COAST BRINGING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING/DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT
BURN SCARS ACROSS TRANSVERSE RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...
...ANOTHER SURGE OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND
IN FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW...
AS THE INITIAL QUICK MOVING STORM THAT AFFECTED THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS USHERED ITS WAY OUT TO SEA ALREADY; THE
CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS GOING TO SWING THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALREADY,
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS HAVE BEEN FALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A SWATH OF 4-8" WILL FALL ACROSS E IA, S WI/N IL
INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A
SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE HIGHER MOISTURE AND
UNSTABLE AIR BACK ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
MS/AL TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM S LA TO W GA
AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HOISTED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3 OF 5) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MS AND AL WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS, TORNADOES INCLUDING
POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES (EF2 OR GREATER) IS DENOTED.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG STORMS, MULTIPLE ROUNDS MAY OCCUR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (2 OF
4)AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIMILAR AREAS,
BUT ALSO SPREADING FURTHER NORTH NEAR/ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT INTO
TN AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATER TODAY. THE
SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL REMAIN FOR THURSDAY ACROSS GEORGIA
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BUT LEVEL OF POTENTIAL
WILL BE REDUCED IN MAGNITUDE AND AREAL COVERAGE WITH A MARGINAL
ISSUED BY BOTH SPC AND WPC FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE HAZARD OUTLOOKS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU MAY INTERSECT WITH RECENT SNOWFALL, INCREASING
THE RISK OF STREAM/RIVER FLOODING AS RAIN AND MELT COMBINE QUICKLY
AS RUNOFF.
THIS STRONG FRONTAL ZONE ALSO HELPS TO DELINEATE WELL ABOVE AND
WELL BELOW AIR TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA.
THESE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MAY EVEN PUSH RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN TEXAS TODAY AND ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST, STRONGER WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS
COMING OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WILL PRESENT A FIRE WEATHER RISK
TODAY, AND SPC HAS ISSUED A CRITICAL (LEVEL 2 OF 3) RISK TODAY FOR
THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH ELEVATED RISK NOTED INTO ADJACENT
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT, EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE UP ACROSS
PORTION OF NORTHERN MT AND WESTERN ND AS A WELL BELOW AVERAGE COLD
AIR MASS DROPS OUT OF CANADA WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT NEARING -20 TO -30F IN ND. THE 10-25 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE AIR WILL DROP INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL, BUT WILL START TO MODIFY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RECORDS ARE NOT LIKELY BUT THE HAZARD
OF EXTREME COLD REMAINS FOR HUMANS/ANIMALS ALIKE.
THE THIRD IN THE PARADE OF STORMS FOR THIS WEEK, HAS BEEN
STRENGTHENING OFF THE CENTRAL WEST COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FOR A DAY OR SO. A STRONG BUCKLE IN THE JET STREAK IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLOSED LOW ALOFT THAT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED ENERGY TO
STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT NEARS THE COAST LATER TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE CORE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME WITH A WARM FRONT
PARALLEL TO THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE, WHILE THE CORE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE REDWOOD COAST OF NW CA;
HOWEVER IT WILL NOT LINGER LONG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, LIKELY ROUNDING CAPE CONCEPTION TOWARD THURSDAY
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT ON THE
MOUNTAINS (BOTH COASTAL RANGES AND LOWER FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA) WILL RESULT IN TOTALS OF 2-3" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE, AS SUCH, WPC HAS A BROAD SLIGHT RISK FOR THESE RANGES
FROM CAPE MENDOCINO SOUTHWARD. THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY,
THE PLUME WILL BE DIRECTED AT THE TRANSVERSE AND PENINSULAR RANGES
WHERE RECENT BURN SCARS REMAIN AT RISK FOR DEBRIS FLOWS/MUDSLIDES
GIVEN LACK OF RAINFALL SINCE OCCURRING; AS SUCH A MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS UP FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES AND SURROUNDING
URBAN LOCATIONS. PLEASE KEEP ATTUNED TO LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE ALERTS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD AND NWS
SAN DIEGO. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL
INTERSECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA RANGES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS.
GALLINA
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