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FXUS06 KWBC 122029
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 12 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2025
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A 500-HPA PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO). DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE AO INDEX DERIVED FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AT ITS MOST NEGATIVE VALUE OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD. RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF ALASKA. WEAK
RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. CONVERSELY, ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING IS PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AS TIME
PROGRESSES, THE STRONG RIDGING OVER NORTHERN CANADA BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
CORRESPONDINGLY, THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS IN
MAGNITUDE. UNCERTAINTY IS RELATIVELY HIGH AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. INCREASED TROUGHING IS GENERALLY PREDICTED ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON DAY 7. BY DAY 9, TRANSIENT AND WEAK
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS
GENERALLY FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION NOTED BY DAY 10. THE TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS ALSO FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD, RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA WITH TIME. TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FOR THE 5
DAY PERIOD AS A WHOLE WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE
EUROPEAN, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, WITH THE GREATEST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE
EUROPEAN DUE TO CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL. THIS MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT
BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF MOST OF THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AS WELL AS MUCH OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, SOUTHERN PLAINS,
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
WITH BROUGHD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TRANSIENT
RIDGING, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
PREDICTED WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO FALL LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND OBSERVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN ADJACENT WATERS.
AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS LIKELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ROCKIES.
SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM TRACK,
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, OHIO
VALLEY, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THESE REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST DUE TO
PREDICTED RIDGING. ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
AS FAR AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THESE REGIONS. CONVERSELY, A TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
WEAK RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2025
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE NEGATIVE AO IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE RIDGING PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN CANADA SUBSIDES. IN ITS
PLACE, A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH ITSELF BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGING OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD. A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER HAWAII. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES,
THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. AS THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS, THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE OF A DOMINANT
FEATURE AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. CONVERSELY, DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN OVER ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
STABLE, WITH RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS DOMINATING EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND STRONG TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER THE ALEUTIANS.
RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII. THE 7
DAY MEAN 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE EUROPEAN,
CANADIAN, AND GEFS MODELS WITH THE GREATEST WEIGHT (50 PERCENT) GIVEN TO THE
EUROPEAN DUE TO RECENT SKILL. THE RESULTANT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF EASTERN ALASKA WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS, SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION AS TIME PROGRESSES.
CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST AS A
RIDGE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREDICTED, SOME
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
COLD AIR INVERSIONS, LIMITING CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN AFFECTED
LOCATIONS. DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA, PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR
HAWAII DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE TO A VARIETY
OF FACTORS. ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST, A COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES THE CHANCES OF SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION. ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE INTERIOR EAST, DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED DUE TO A PREDICTED DRY STABLE ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM
PARTS OF THE GULF COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SEABOARD, AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE MAINLAND WHERE ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW MAY BE
PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED. CONVERSELY, PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL RIDGING TILTS
THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY AN ANTICIPATED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510129 - 19570125 - 19890203 - 19890215 - 19880203
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890203 - 19570125 - 19890215 - 19880203 - 19510128
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 18 - 22 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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