133
FXUS01 KWBC 130756
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 12Z THU FEB 13 2025 - 12Z SAT FEB 15 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A RISK OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH 0. 10 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY; RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY...
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY; HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ON THURSDAY, AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION, ON THURSDAY, HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY, WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND FROM LAKES
SUPERIOR, ERIE, AND ONTARIO. AS THE STORM MOVES EASTWARD, THE ICE
STORM ENDS IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM
FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO PLAIN RAIN IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE. THE SNOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST WILL WANE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY OVER THE WEST
COAST. THE ASSOCIATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN INLAND INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RAIN WILL PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS, SMALL STREAMS, AND SOME MINOR RIVER
FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST
IN AND NEAR RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
FLOODING MAY INCLUDE DEBRIS FLOWS. THOSE AROUND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS SHOULD LISTEN CAREFULLY TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS. FLASH FLOODING IN BURN SCARS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MANY
STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS. FLOODING
MAY INCLUDE DEBRIS FLOWS IN OR NEAR RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.
MOREOVER, SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP AS SNOW
SPREADS INTO MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS, WITH 72
TO 100 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE THROUGH THE EVENT,
BUT HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL AT MANY OF THE
AREA PASSES DUE TO SNOW-COVERED ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS OF UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO. FREEZING RAIN WILL PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN
NORTHWEST OREGON, TOO.
FURTHERMORE, AS THE ENERGY FROM THE STORM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. FURTHER, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY. MOREOVER,
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW LINE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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