651
FXUS06 KWBC 132002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 13 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 23 2025
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO DAY 6, FEBRUARY 19. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST ON DAYS 6
AND 7 (FEBRUARY 19 AND 20) ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHERE DAILY TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN 25 DEGREES F BELOW
NORMAL ARE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH DAY 10, A MODERATING TREND IS FORECAST AS
DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM -5 TO -10 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THIS
PERIOD. GIVEN THE INFLUENCE FROM A BROAD-SCALE ARCTIC HIGH, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST. NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DUE TO A RELATIVELY WARM START TO THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. A
BUILDING 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND FOR THIS REGION WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SURFACE
HIGH PERSISTING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WHICH FAVORS LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS FOR
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHERE
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (FEBRUARY 19 AND 20), MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE GULF COAST TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
IN RECENT DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GEFS
AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST BY DAY 9 WITH AN
EASTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, A TWO-CATEGORY CHANGE FROM
ABOVE TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES AS PRECIPITATION TIMES OFF AND CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH
STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.
PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW ELEVATE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
NORTHERN IDAHO, NORTHERN OREGON, AND WASHINGTON.
A STRENGTHENING 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS IS LIKELY TO
BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
DURING LATE FEBRUARY. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH,
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE STATE OF ALASKA. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
(MORE THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. DUE TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 27 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING A HIGH AMPLITUDE
500-HPA TROUGH (RIDGE) OVER THE ALEUTIANS (WESTERN CONUS). THIS LONGWAVE
PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA WHICH HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 2024-25 WINTER. THESE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
FEATURE A 500-HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BUT DIFFER ON ITS STRENGTH
WITH THE ECENS MOST AMPLIFIED. REGARDLESS OF THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE
ANOMALOUS 500-HPA TROUGH WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. FOLLOWING
THE AO INDEX PEAKING AT NEAR -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, A RAPID TRANSITION TO A
POSITIVE PHASE OF THE AO IS FORECAST BY MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING
WEEK-2. AS HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING QUICKLY WEAKENS, A MAJOR WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES, GREAT PLAINS, AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON DAY 10 (FEBRUARY 23). THEREFORE, A TWO-CATEGORY CHANGE FROM BELOW TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WAS NECESSARY ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM THE 6-10 TO
8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WHERE LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS MAY OFFSET WARMING AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST INLAND
FROM THE WEST COAST. THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN IS OVERALL A DRY ONE FOR MOST OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. DUE TO HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED
TO MORE THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK ONLY SLIGHTLY TILTS TO THE DRY
SIDE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS SINCE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE STORM TRACK NEAR
THE EAST COAST. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, TO THE SOUTH OF THE BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC IMPLIES THAT
THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY BE ACTIVE DURING LATE FEBRUARY. PRECIPITATION TOOLS
AGREE ON AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALONG THE WEST COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE LIMITED TO WASHINGTON WHICH COULD HAVE PERIODS OF ONSHORE
FLOW.
DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, THE LARGEST PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY ALONG WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
OUTPUT AND ANALOG TOOLS FROM THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620225 - 19510129 - 19570124 - 19880203 - 19890203
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620225 - 19510130 - 19570124 - 19880202 - 19890203
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 23 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH B B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 27 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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