532
FXUS01 KWBC 132008
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EST THU FEB 13 2025
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 14 2025 - 00Z SUN FEB 16 2025
...A WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDS
FROM HEAVY RAIN IN CALIFORNIA TO WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY...
...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND ANOTHER
INTENSE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT AND ENTER THE
PLAINS BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...
... A IMPACTFUL FLOODING THREAT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND...
THE CURRENT WEATHER IN THE U.S. IS RATHER CHILLY AS A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL U.S.. A COLD FRONT ATTENDED TO A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLOODING TO CALIFORNIA AND SNOW AND ICE TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CLEAR THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, IT IS EXPECTED THAT A
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CORRIDOR, WHILE A COLD
FRONT FROM THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MARCH
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST AND OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE SOUTH
REMAINS WARM WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 80
DEGREES. THE EAST COAST WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. THE PARAGRAPHS BELOW WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL ON
SPECIFIC WEATHER HAZARDS.
HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS.
THROUGH TODAY, A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, INCLUDING THE TRANSVERSE AND
PENINSULAR RANGES. BURN SCARS FROM WILDFIRES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS THE COASTAL
RANGES AND THE SIERRA NEVADA AS MOIST FLOW AND RAIN CONTINUES OVER
SATURATED SOILS. THE FLOODING RAIN SHOULD END BY TOMORROW MORNING
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME COAST TO
COAST AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND THE NEXT IN LINE WILL BE THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MULTIPLE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
STORM WATCHES ARE POSTED WHERE MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL,
MOST OF WHICH WILL BE ON FRIDAY. TRAVEL MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
MAY THEN SEE CHANCES FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
SWINGS INTO THE REGION AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
FINALLY, THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
THE EAST FOR THE HEART OF WINTER AS NEW ENGLAND SEE HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO 20S, WHILE MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SEES HIGHS IN THE
30S, APPROACHING 40 IN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, THE
BIGGER TEMPERATURE STORYLINE WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO 20-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND MAY BE IN THE SINGLE TEENS AND
LIKELY SOME PLACES BELOW ZERO. MEANWHILE, A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BREAK 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE CLASH IN TEMPERATURES WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR FLOODING THREAT, AS WELL AS
SEVERE WEATHER BY THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL BE AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER DAY FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND APPALACHIA. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3-6 INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN TRAINING CONVECTION, ARE FORECAST. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY AND A HIGHER UPGRADE IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT AS THE EVENT NEARS. LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING
WEATHER SAFETY. FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A ENHANCED RISK FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA FOR THE
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
WILDER
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