820
FXUS02 KWBC 140705
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 12Z MON FEB 17 2025 - 12Z FRI FEB 21 2025
..ARCTIC BLAST FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK
...EMERGING PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO
SOUTH THEN EAST COAST NEXT WEEK...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE UNUSUALLY WELL CLUSTERED FOR NEXT
WEEK, BOLSTERING FORCAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH MEDIUM-RANGE TIME
SCALES. A FAVORED COMPOSITE OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET
AND INCLUSION OVER TIME OF THE GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
OFFERS GOOD SYSTEM DETAIL, ALBEIT WITH THE BLEND SMOOTHING LESS
PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS WELL ALIGNED
WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS GOOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL WORK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAILING UPPER ENERGIES AND
VERY COLD LOWER ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING WRAP-
BACK MOISTURE TO FUEL GREAT LAKE EFFECT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SNOWS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC
AIRMASS TAKES HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK.
ENTRENCHED COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ALSO OFFER
A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH FOCUS OVER
ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THIS PATTERN.
UPSTREAM, SEVERAL ORGANIZED SHORTWAVES/FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTARD THROUGH THE WEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. A WPC DAY5/TUESDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) MARGINAL
THREAT AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HEADING THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK AS WAVY
FRONTAL LOWS DEVELOP AND SWING ALONG THE GULF COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
OUTLOOK OUTLINES THE SNOW/ICE THREAT THAT MAY CONTINUE INTO LATER
NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW/STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THREATEN
UP THE EAST COAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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