445
FXUS01 KWBC 140818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 14 2025 - 12Z SUN FEB 16 2025
...A WESTERN U.S. STORM SYSTEM BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO CALIFORNIA
AND WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...
...AN IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT EMERGES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
...WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCHES SNOWFALL EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND WITH A SWATH OF SLEET/ICE JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. FOLLOWED BY A MORE INTENSE SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS WEEKEND...
A HYPERACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS MAINLAND U.S., RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL
WEATHER TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA, AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWS THAT HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
ARE THE HARBINGERS OF THINGS TO COME FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.
THE EXPANSIVE PACIFIC CYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD
INCLEMENT WEATHER MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HEAVY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTING CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHEN THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND REDEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, THE LATEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A DAY OF COLD
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO THE NORTHEAST. BUT AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE EAST COAST
THIS EVENING, MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST WILL QUICKLY REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. A COLDER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
ALSO ENTER THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ENERGY FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS REINVIGORATED CYCLONE WILL BECOME RATHER
EXPANSIVE AS IT MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FALL FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH A SWATH OF
SLEET/ICE JUST TO THE SOUTH POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AS THE CYCLONE INTENSIFY FURTHER, THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL BECOME QUITE POTENT,
POSSIBLY BRINGING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A ENHANCED RISK FROM EXTREME
EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN ALABAMA FOR THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL,
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
IN BETWEEN THE WINTRY WEATHER IN THE NORTH AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE SOUTH, AN IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EVENT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN THE INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAM. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THESE REGIONS WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE
FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN TRAINING
CONVECTION. LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING WEATHER SAFETY.
MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE SOUTH REMAINS WARM WITH MANY LOCATIONS
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 80 DEGREES. THE EAST COAST WILL BE
SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC OUTBREAK REACHES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPEAR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
MORNING BEFORE PLUNGING FURTHER DOWN INTO THE -20S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
KONG
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