594
FXCA20 KWBC 141919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2025
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 FEBRUARY 2025 AT 1900 UTC
NOTE: TROPICAL DESK PRODUCTS WILL BE PAUSED ON MONDAY 17 FEBRUARY
2025 DUE TO THE FEDERAL HOLIDAY AND WILL RESUME ON TUESDAY 18
FEBRUARY 2025. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS, AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRIEF
SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND IN
SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA, WHERE MOST OF THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, CAN EXPECTED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AS WELL, BUT THE WEST COAST OF ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AMOUNTS OF
RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
THE MOISTURE FIELD OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE AREAS OF NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN, WITH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. THAT SAID, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS, AS THE
500MB LEVEL IS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BASIN INTO MEXICO.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA DOES HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MID
LEVELS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ALSO HAVE GOOD MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE WESTERLY EQUATORIAL WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALOFT. BECAUSE THE MOISTURE COLUMN OVER THIS AREA WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP, THE DAILY RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE AREA IS LOWER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID, THE
MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IN AND AROUND THE AMAZONAS TO
THE GUIANAS AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRASIL REMAIN ADEQUATE
TO FUEL DECENT DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A RETROGRADING TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS OVER
HISPANIOLA. THEREFORE, FOR THE MOST PART, A RELATIVELY STABLE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. THEE ARE A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, HOWEVER. THESE TROUGHS WILL
CAUSE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY, THOUGH MOSTLY IT WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE
AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE QUICKLY WEST AS THERE IS A LARGE
AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF OVER 25KT.
BECAUSE THE WINDS ARE FAIRLY STRONG IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF OVER ANY ONE AREA, CAUSING THE
OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MODEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA, IN MOST CASES MAXING OUT AT AROUND 15-20MM
EACH DAY ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS AND EVEN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS IN
MOST AREAS. THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST DAILY
MAXIMA OF UP TO 10-15MM EACH DAY ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS, WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL OBSERVE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. MEXICO WILL BE FAILRY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT, CAUSING SOME MOISTURE TO
POOL OVER VERACRUZ AND OAXACA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET KNOWN AS THE TEHUANTEPECER, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH LAND INTERACTIONS OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE, UP O 35MM OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
VERACRUZ, OAXACA, AND INTO CHIAPAS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE EACH DAY TO
CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AMAZONAS TODAY AND SATUDAY, WITH
DAILY TOTALS THAT COULD BE AS MUCH AS 40-80MM, BUT FOR SUNDAY THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GUIANAS INTO
PARA AND AMAPA OF BRASIL, WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WESTERN ECUADOR
AND COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT THE DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
20-45MM AS THE AFOREMENTIONES DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW DEEP THE CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. THEREFORE A MORE
SCATTERED AND NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD OR EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST, COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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