804
FXUS01 KWBC 142000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2025
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 15 2025 - 00Z MON FEB 17 2025
...A LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EVENT EMERGES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH A SWATH OF SLEET/ICE JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR
SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...
...PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED ROUND OF LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM BRING THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING, SEVERE WEATHER, AND HEAVY SNOW FROM
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. FOR TODAY,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A
WINTRY MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF INTO THE DAY SATURDAY,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH BOTH STRENGTHENING LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND A
SIGNIFICANT FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. THE
COMBINATION OF FAVORABLY STRONG DYNAMICS, FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT, AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF INTENSE STORMS AS THEY MOVE PARALLEL TO AND
BACK BUILD ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2" PER
HOUR AND TOTALS OF 3-6", WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8". THE
GREATEST RISK FOR THIS INTENSE RAINFALL LEADING TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY, WHERE A HIGH RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4) IS IN EFFECT. A BROADER MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 3/4) COVERS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH TO OHIO VALLEY,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) ENCOMPASSING THE GENERAL REGION
EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS. STILL POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, BUT MORE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD RISK, SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
EXPECTED, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) ISSUED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, INCLUDING THE RISK FOR
STRONG TORNADOES. THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPEED UP
INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TRANSITIONING THE THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND QLCS TORNADOES, WHICH MAY CONTINUE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
TO THE NORTH, A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE COLDER AIR NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM TRACK, SPREADING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE FOR TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 3-6" RANGE. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE ALONG THE STORM TRACK THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES, A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR UPSTATE NEW
YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINTER
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR SNOW
TOTALS OF 5-10", LOCALLY HIGHER, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. GUSTY WINDS AS THE
INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH MAY ALSO LEAD TO
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME
MODERATE SNOW TOTALS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AND RATHER MILD
FOR REGIONS AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 70S ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/TEXAS/GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. AFTER A COLD SATURDAY, MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 50S AND 60S HERE AS
WELL, WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A MUCH
COLDER, CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOME HIGHS MAY NOT
EVEN REACH ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY. BLUSTERY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THESE
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BACK TO THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
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