105
FXUS06 KWBC 142002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 14 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 24 2025
HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND A NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) ARE NOW PEAKING
IN STRENGTH, WHICH WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO THE START OF
THIS PERIOD. BY DAY 6 (FEBRUARY 20), THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH ARE LIKELY TO BE
STRONGEST ON DAY 6 ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS ALONG WITH THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHERE DAILY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF MORE THAN 25 DEGREES F
BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH DAY 10, A RAPID FLIP TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON DAYS 9 AND 10
(FEBRUARY 23 AND 24). THIS RAPID TRANSITION FROM ARCTIC COLD TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS FORECAST OF THE AO INDEX GOING FROM
NEAR -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO A POSITIVE PHASE DURING THE NEXT TEN DAYS. GIVEN
THE INFLUENCE FROM A BROAD-SCALE ARCTIC HIGH, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES DECREASE FARTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. A BUILDING 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND FOR THIS REGION WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY
CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ON DAY 6 (FEBRUARY 20), A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EITHER TRACK ALONG
OR OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD
LEAD TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD,
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DEPARTING SURFACE LOW,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
DUE TO THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED FOR THE ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN,
SOUTHWEST, AND CALIFORNIA AS AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST
COAST. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND ECENS FAVOR AN INCREASE OF ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON WHICH LEADS TO ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THOSE AREAS.
AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS WITH ANOMALOUS
SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA. THE LARGEST ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
(MORE THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE ONSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. DUE TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK-2 AND DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH (RIDGE) CENTERED OVER THE
ALEUTIANS (WESTERN CONUS). THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH A POSITIVE
PHASE OF THE PNA WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 2024-25
WINTER. THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO FEATURE A 500-HPA TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST
WITH THE ECENS REMAINING THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. LATER IN WEEK-2, A
TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
NORTH AMERICA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ALONG WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
LATER IN WEEK-2 STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOMALOUS COLD EARLY IN WEEK-2
TILTS THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE DURING THE FINAL
WEEK OF FEBRUARY, MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
REAMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE MONTH.
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FEATURE A 7-DAY MEAN RIDGE JUST INLAND FROM THE
WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST. THIS PREDICTED
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS GENERALLY A RELATIVELY DRY ONE FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48
STATES. THE BROAD 500-HPA RIDGE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK HEADING
INTO WEEK-2 LEADS TO INCREASED BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM TRACK
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER IN WEEK-2, WHICH RESULTS IN ONLY A SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A WETTER
OUTLOOK FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A LINGERING STATIONARY
FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW, FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR
THESE AREAS WITH NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. COVERAGE FOR THE INCREASED
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOWER TODAY AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM TRACK LATER IN WEEK-2. THE
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A MAJORITY OF ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880203 - 19620226 - 19940223 - 20010223 - 19510130
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940223 - 19620226 - 19880202 - 19510130 - 19960129
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 20 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B A
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 28 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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