414
FXUS02 KWBC 150710
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 18 2025 - 12Z SAT FEB 22 2025
...INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK
WITH AN IMPACTFUL SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO EAST COAST WINTER STORM...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
QUEBEC WILL PIVOT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM DIG INTO THE
WEST. AT THE SURFACE, A MASSIVE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY TO ENVELOP
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
THEN FORM A LOW ALONG IT, WHICH SHOULD THEN TRACK TO NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND SUPPORT A WINTER COASTAL STORM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK OFF THE NORTHEAST. THE 00/06 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE
STILL FEATURES ABOVE AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT THOROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. A BRAOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPOSITE
SEEMED TO PROVIDE A QUITE REASONABLE FORECAST BASIS GENERALLY IN
LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
LATEST 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS IN LINE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AS AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS TAKES HOLD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. ENTRENCHED COLD AIR WILL
MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ALSO OFFER A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH FOCUS OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL
U.S. IN THIS PATTERN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE 25 TO 45 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE INTO NEXT MIDWEEK FOR THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UPSTREAM, SEVERAL ORGANIZED SHORTWAVES/FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES. FORTIFIED UPSLOPE FETCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC FRONTAL SURGE TROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL FAVOR SNOW AND
WIND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES, EARNESTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BIG SOUTH TUESDAY. AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) FOR DAY
4/TUESDAY AND DAY 5/WEDNESDAY DEPICT MARGINAL RISK AREAS SPREADING
FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
1-3 INCHES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS AN ORGANIZING FRONTAL WAVE
TRACK ENHANCES MOISTURE INFLOW INTO THE REGION.
DOWNSTREAM, AN IMPACTFUL WINTER COASTAL STORM OFFERS A THREAT FOR
HEAVY SNOW FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS DEPICTED THE LINKED WPC WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO).
WITH ABUNDANT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A CORRIDOR OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO ADJUST THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE BULK OF PRECIPITTION.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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