690
FXUS01 KWBC 152000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 16 2025 - 00Z TUE FEB 18 2025
...A LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EVENT CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER TO MID-MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...
...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SWATH OF SLEET/ICE JUST TO THE SOUTH...
...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED ROUND OF LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY...
A LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EVENT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
(SATURDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG LOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS WELL AS AN INFLUX OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF SUPPORTING EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAIN RATES. WIND FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT HAS ALSO SUPPORTED REPEATED
ROUNDS OF BACK BUILDING STORMS, LEADING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS
OF SEVERAL INCHES. A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 4/4)
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND GREATEST THREAT
FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXISTS. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
BUT MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
AS THESE INTENSE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING, REDUCING
THE FLOODING THREAT AS STORMS CLEAR AREAS MORE QUICKLY AND
TRANSITIONING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DAMAGING WINDS. MORE
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW
MORE POTENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHER, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY
FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST AND MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, A POTENT WINTER
STORM WILL SPREAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK/NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR THE GREAT
LAKES, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
FOR FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT REGIONS ALONG LAKES SUPERIOR AND HURON,
WITH TOTALS OF 5-10", LOCALLY 12", POSSIBLE. THE SNOW HERE SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL WILL RAMP UP FURTHER
EAST INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WITH TOTALS OF 6-12" EXPECTED, LOCALLY HIGHER,
PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND FOR AREAS CLOSER
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO BRING VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A TRANSITION TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MORE SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, COMPOUNDING THE RISK FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A WINTRY MIX
LIKELY IN THE TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN SUNDAY EVENING, CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ANOTHER MAJOR WEATHER STORY BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LIFE-THREATENING COLD IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FAIL TO
CRACK 0 DEGREES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WINDCHILL UPWARDS OF
60 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS THIS COLD CAN LEAD TO FROSTBITE
IN A MATTER OF MINUTES. FURTHER SOUTH, FORECAST HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
WITH 40S AND 50S FROM TEXAS EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MORE INTENSE COLD IS EXPECTED HERE FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A MILD START AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST, COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS AS WELL, WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO 40S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, 40S AND
50S FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AND 60S INTO FLORIDA.
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING LOWER
ELEVATION COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. A LOWER ELEVATION WINTRY MIX
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. IN CONTRAST TO THE NORTH, CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
FOR MOST OF CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE, MILD CONDITIONS.
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