862
FOUS30 KWBC 152352
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
652 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
DAY 1
VALID 01Z SUN FEB 16 2025 - 12Z SUN FEB 16 2025
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS...
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWS A
CONTINUED AXIS OF TRAINING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EASTERN
AND SOUTH ARKANSAS TO THE BORDER OF IN/IL WITH KY THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV INTO SOUTHWEST VA. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 50+ KTS AND WAS QUASI- PARALLEL ON THE
COOL/OVERRUNNING SIDE A SET OF WARM FRONTS IN AN AREA OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE FLOW TO REMAIN
PARALLEL IN NATURE OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL ALIGNMENT AND FOR THE
WESTERN EDGE TO SHOW INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION WITH TIME AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.3-1.5" AND
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS QUITE DEPRESSED, APPROACHING ZERO, WITHIN
AN AREA OF COMPLETELY SATURATED, IF NOT FLOODED, SOILS. THE
VARIOUS MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS REMAIN SUPPORTED, GIVEN THE
ABOVE. THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH, WHERE MESOCYCLONE FORMATION AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE BANDS
ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE OFFING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DUE TO CURRENT RAINFALL
TRENDS AND ANOTHER EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADVANCING
FRONT ACROSS VERY SENSITIVE REGIONS. EXPECT A CONTINUED LARGE
EXPANSE OF FLASH FLOOD AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS INTO TONIGHT WITH
MORE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH
FOR POTENTIAL LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE
ABOVE AREAS.
ROTH
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 16 2025 - 12Z MON FEB 17 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
20Z UPDATE: THE MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS A
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE MRGL RISK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VA AND NORTHWESTERN NC WHERE TRENDS WITHIN THE 12Z
HREF HIGHLIGHTS LINGERING CONVECTIVE SCHEMES OVER THE TERRAIN IN
THE FIRST 3-6 HR WINDOW OF D2, AN AREA THAT WILL BE WELL-PRIMED AND
LIKELY EXPERIENCING ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. ALREADY SOME SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITHIN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF VA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT MOD/HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. HREF 1"/6-HR PROBS ARE BETWEEN 50-70% WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN A FEW HRS WITHIN THE SHORT TERM
WINDOW 12-18Z SUN. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING A VERY LOW-END PROB FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR OTHER AREAS
DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE MID-ATLANTIC, INCLUDING THE METRO CORRIDOR
FROM RICHMOND TO BOSTON. STILL MAINTAINING NON-ZERO PROBS FOR THOSE
AREAS ACROSS THE MEGALOPOLIS, BUT PROB FIELDS ARE NOT SIGNALING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND THE RISK AREA FURTHER
NORTH, SO MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KLEEBAUER
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
A MARGINAL RISK WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC,
MAINLY AS A REFLECTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF, HEAVY RAINS
ADVANCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE,
WITH WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL HEAVY TOTALS NOT EXPECTED, MOIST SOILS
FURTHER SATURATED BY RAIN IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD MAY ENCOURAGE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING RESPONSES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA.
PEREIRA
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON FEB 17 2025 - 12Z TUE FEB 18 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN FIVE PERCENT.
PEREIRA/KLEEBAUER
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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