576
FXUS02 KWBC 160700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 12Z WED FEB 19 2025 - 12Z SUN FEB 23 2025
...INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK
WITH AN IMPACTFUL SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO EAST COAST WINTER STORM...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
PREFERRED BLEND AT THAT TIME OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE
18 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN ALONG WITH THE 12 UTC ECMWF AND
ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. APPLIED HEAVIER BLEND WEIGHTING TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO LATER WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND TO MITIGATE
QUICKLY GROWING FLOW EMBEDDED FEATURE TIMING VARIANCES. THIS
SOLUTION HAD STRONG MACHINE LEARNING MODEL SUPPORT AND MAINTAINED
GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY. OUTLIER GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC
CANADIAN/UKMET HAS SINCE TRENDED INTO THE FOLD WITH THE LATEST 00
UTC CYCLE, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. ENTRENCHED COLD AIR WILL MAINTAIN LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AND ALSO OFFER A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF NUMEROUS RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH FOCUS OVER ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL U.S..
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS COLD AS 25 TO 45 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
UPSTREAM, SEVERAL ORGANIZED SHORTWAVES/FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF
LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES. FORTIFIED UPSLOPE FETCH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC FRONTAL SURGE TROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL FAVOR LINGERING
SNOW AND WIND TO THE LEE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. AS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THE WPC DAY 4/WEDNESDAY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS AN ORGANIZING
FRONTAL WAVE TRACK ENHANCES MOISTURE INFLOW. THERE WILL MEANWHILE
BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW/ICE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RAIN AREA OUT FROM THE BIG SOUTH AND THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. DOWNSTREAM, AN IMPACTFUL WINTER COASTAL STORM WILL OFFER
A MARITIME THREAT, WITH WRAPBACK WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DEPICTED
ON THE WPC WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH ABUNDANT SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS EXPECTED, WITH A CORRIDOR OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. GUIDANCE HOWEVER STILL CONTINUES TO ADJUST THE STORM TRACK
COASTAL PROXIMITY AND INLAND EXTENT OF THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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