464
FXUS01 KWBC 160817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 16 2025 - 12Z TUE FEB 18 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST TODAY AS FLASH FLOOD
THREAT DIMINISHES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A
PERIOD OF SLEET/ICE FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK TO INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND...
...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
...PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE LOWER-ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST
ROUND OF IMPACTFUL HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI,
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN SIZE AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. FLASH
FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THESE IMPACTED AREAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE
HEAVY RAIN ENDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, A SOLID LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS, WILL
SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EAST COAST TODAY JUST AHEAD OF
A POTENT COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER. THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TRACK THOUGH, WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL
WINTRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
AREAS AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE CYCLONE TRACK WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD
OF SLEET/ICE, WHICH CAN SPREAD AS FAR INLAND AS THE ADIRONDACKS IN
UPSTATE NEW YORK, ACROSS THE HIGHER-ELEVATION OF INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY TODAY, AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF MAINE INTO THE EVENING. THE DEEP LOW WILL ALSO BRING
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. ARCTIC
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE BIG STORM FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
FOR TONIGHT, CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF MARYLAND. THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD
SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY BUT LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKES ITS APPEARANCE ALONG THE SNOW BELT
DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOWER-ELEVATION
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED. THE MOISTURE WILL THEN PENETRATE
FURTHER INLAND AND INTERACT WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE
SNOW WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARD THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE COVERAGE OF
THE SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE ARCTIC FRONT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE RISK
OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ANOTHER MAJOR WEATHER
STORY AS WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BEHIND THE BIG STORM,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIFE-THREATENING COLD IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE
-30S NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO WINDCHILL OF 60 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. CONDITIONS THIS COLD CAN
LEAD TO FROSTBITE IN A MATTER OF MINUTES. FURTHER SOUTH, FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH 40S AND 50S FROM TEXAS EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE INTENSE COLD IS EXPECTED HERE
FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER A MILD START AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG THE EAST COAST, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THESE
AREAS AS WELL, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO 40S
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, 40S AND 50S FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AND 60S INTO
FLORIDA.
KONG
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