174
FOUS30 KWBC 161545
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1045 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
DAY 1
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 16 2025 - 12Z MON FEB 17 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN FIVE PERCENT...
THE STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH MUCH OF THE CORES
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS ACROSS THE COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AREAS EXPERIENCING COLD AIR DAMNING. THE WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING NORTH, WITH SOME MODEST 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE STARTING TO
HELP REDEVELOP SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
BUT TIMING FOR THIS REINVORGORATION OVER SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS IS RAPIDLY CLOSING AS THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY 18-19Z. HREF PROBABILITY STILL HAVE A FEW SPOTS OF .5"/HR
OVER 40% ACROSS S CENTRAL MD, SE VA INTO THE DELMARVA; BUT THIS
ALSO SEEMS SLIGHTLY INFLATED GIVEN OVER- ESTIMATION OF TRENDS
EARLIER THIS MORNING AS WELL. SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS, THE FFG
VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER TO BE IN REACH EVEN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS/RAIN RATES.
SO IN COORDINATION WITH LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES, THE MARGINAL RISK
WAS REDUCED TO BELOW 5% COVERAGE. WHILE THIS MEANS RAINFALL INDUCED
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS NEARLY OVER , THERE WILL BE
REMAINING CHANNELING OF ON-GROUND WATERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LONGER-DURATION, SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL/RIVERINE
FLOODING. CONTINUE TO PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AND WATER RELATED WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS FROM THE NATIONAL WATER
CENTER, RIVER FORECAST CENTERS AND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
GALLINA
----PRIOR DISCUSSION----
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING AHEAD OF AN DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY ACROSS THE
REGION, PRODUCING A PERIOD OF BRIEF, BUT POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, RECENT PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING THAT WHICH HAS FALLEN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HAS SATURATED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. 1-HR FFGS UNDER A 0.25 INCH IN SOME AREAS SUGGEST THAT EVEN
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING
CONDITIONS. FFGS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE.
PEREIRA
DAY 2
VALID 12Z MON FEB 17 2025 - 12Z TUE FEB 18 2025
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN FIVE PERCENT.
PEREIRA
DAY 3
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 18 2025 - 12Z WED FEB 19 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DRAW DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, WITH PWS CLIMBING TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. MODELS
ALSO OFFER A MODEST SIGNAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE EAST ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY HELP SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBANIZED AREAS.
PEREIRA
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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