078
FXUS01 KWBC 161927
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
VALID 00Z MON FEB 17 2025 - 00Z WED FEB 19 2025
...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO
WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET/ICE FROM UPSTATE NEW
YORK TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
...PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE LOWER-ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A WINTER STORM STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO UPSTATE NEW
YORK/NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THIS (SUNDAY)
EVENING. WARMER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST HAS BROUGHT A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND, REDUCING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT ADDING TO
TRAVEL TROUBLES WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ON TOP OF ALREADY
SLICK ROADS. SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS,
POTENTIALLY HEAVIER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER IN MAINE. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW
WILL LINGER LONGER FOR FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT LOCATIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH COLD WESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, WITH SOME HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FURTHER SOUTH,
SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST. VERY STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT.
AN INTRUSION OF DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO EXPAND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIR IS ALREADY WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WHERE DAILY HIGHS
ARE STRUGGLING TO EXCEED ZERO DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND WIND
CHILLS ARE UPWARDS OF-30 TO -60 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THESE EXTREME
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE FROSTBITE WITHIN MINUTES. AFTER A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM FRIGID HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S, 50S,
AND 60S, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND BRING THE FRIGID
ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH WITH IT BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. FRIGID
AIR IN TEENS AND 20S WILL ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS TEXAS, ARKANSAS, AND WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
WHILE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS FURTHER WEST, THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALSO USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE 40S AND 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TO THE WEST, THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH LOWER ELEVATION/COASTAL
RAIN, A WINTRY MIX FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, AND HEAVY HIGH
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND BLACK HILLS THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD START
TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THE WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MONDAY AND HELP TO DEEPEN/ORGANIZE A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE NOTED ARCTIC
AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO AN EXPANDING AREA OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS BEGINNING BY
EARLY TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY/OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW WILL
MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SPREADING ADDITIONAL WINTER HAZARDS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY, BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.
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